Alphabet signals $91B–$93B 2025 CapEx amid AI-driven growth surge

Earnings Call Insights: Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Q3 2025

MANAGEMENT VIEW

* Sundar Pichai, CEO & Director, opened the call emphasizing, “This was a terrific quarter for Alphabet, driven by double-digit growth across every major part of our business. We are seeing AI now driving real business results across the company. We delivered our first ever $100 billion quarter.” He highlighted that Alphabet’s revenue has doubled in five years and noted, “The Gemini app now has over 650 million monthly active users, and queries increased by 3x from Q2.”
* Pichai reported that “Cloud had another great quarter of accelerating growth with AI revenue as a key driver. Cloud backlog grew 46% quarter-over-quarter to $155 billion.” The company surpassed 300 million paid subscriptions, led by Google One and YouTube Premium.
* AI infrastructure investments were spotlighted, with Pichai stating, “We are scaling the most advanced chips in our data centers, including GPUs from our partner, NVIDIA, as well as our own purposeful TPUs. As we announced yesterday at NVIDIA GTC, we are now shipping the new A4X Max instances powered by NVIDIA GB300 to our cloud customers.”
* Product innovation was underscored across Search, Cloud, YouTube, and Waymo, with momentum in AI Overviews and AI Mode, stating, “AI Overviews drive meaningful query growth. This effect was even stronger in Q3 as users continue to learn that Google can answer more of their questions.”
* Philipp Schindler, SVP & Chief Business Officer of Google, shared, “Google Services revenues were $87 billion for the quarter, up 14% year-on-year driven by accelerated growth in Search and YouTube.” He highlighted AI Max in Search as “the fastest-growing AI-powered search ads product,” and noted, “In Q3 alone, AI Max unlocked billions of net new queries.”
* Anat Ashkenazi, Senior VP & CFO, stated, “We had an outstanding quarter in Q3, continuing the strong momentum we've had throughout the year, delivering double-digit revenue growth across Search and YouTube advertising, subscriptions, platforms and devices, and Google Cloud. Consolidated revenue reached $102.3 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase.”

OUTLOOK

* Ashkenazi indicated, “At the current spot rates, we could see an FX tailwind to our revenues in Q4. However, the volatility in exchange rates could affect the impact of FX on Q4 revenues.”
* For CapEx, she stated, “We now expect CapEx to be in the range of $91 billion to $93 billion in 2025, up from our previous estimate of $85 billion... Looking out to 2026, we expect a significant increase in CapEx, and we'll provide more detail on our fourth quarter earnings call.”
* She added, “In Cloud, demand for our products remains high as evidenced by the accelerating revenue growth and the $49 billion sequential increase in Cloud backlog in Q3.”

FINANCIAL RESULTS

* Consolidated revenue was reported at $102.3 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase.
* Total cost of revenue was $41.4 billion, and operating income increased 9% to $31.2 billion. Operating margin was 30.5%.
* Net income increased 33% to $35 billion, and earnings per share increased 35% to $2.87.
* Free cash flow for the quarter was $24.5 billion.
* Google Cloud revenue increased by 34% to $15.2 billion, and Cloud operating income increased by 85% to $3.6 billion. Google Cloud's backlog surged to $155 billion.
* Google Services revenues reached $87.1 billion, and operating income increased 9% to $33.5 billion, with an operating margin of 38.5%.

Q&A

* Brian Nowak, Morgan Stanley: Asked about agentic e-commerce and integration of Waymo with Gemini. Philipp Schindler replied that agentic experiences are “really as additive to the way people seek information,” describing efforts to integrate agentic shopping and partnerships with PayPal. Sundar Pichai said, “Waymo clearly is scaling up, particularly in 2026. I think the possibility... of Gemini... with the multimodal experience as well as services like YouTube, I think there's a real opportunity to make the in-car experience dramatically better.”
* Douglas Anmuth, JPMorgan: Asked about drivers of core search strength and cost base opportunities. Schindler noted, “AI Overviews is scaling up and working for our entire user base. We're now scaled to over 2 billion users here... we see the monetization at approximately the same rate.” Ashkenazi described ongoing efforts to drive productivity and efficiency, including moderating headcount growth and leveraging AI for internal productivity.
* Eric Sheridan, Goldman Sachs: Asked about custom silicon and YouTube monetization. Pichai explained, “We are seeing substantial demand for our AI infrastructure products, including TPU-based and GPU-based solutions... we continue to see very strong demand, and we are investing to meet that.” Schindler discussed YouTube’s “twin engine monetization strategy, combining its advertising business and its growing subscription services.”
* Mark Shmulik, Bernstein: Inquired about Gemini and AI Mode engagement differences. Pichai responded, “AI Overviews are a natural part of the Google experience, and so engagement is very, very high. I would say AI Mode... there’s a core group, which really likes AI Mode and is passionate about it.”
* Michael Nathanson, MoffettNathanson: Asked about query length in AI Mode and ROIC. Schindler said, “It's really too early to tell and go into any of the details of that testing.” Ashkenazi highlighted a “rigorous framework and approach by which we evaluate these long-term investments.”

SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

* Analyst sentiment was generally focused and constructive, with pointed questions on agentic commerce, AI monetization, and cost discipline, but without overt skepticism.
* Management maintained a confident tone throughout, emphasizing strong metrics, innovation, and disciplined investment. Pichai and Ashkenazi consistently used language such as “strong momentum,” “excited,” and “opportunity ahead.”
* Compared to the previous quarter, management’s tone remained upbeat, with additional emphasis on scaling infrastructure and investments. Analyst tone stayed focused on monetization and strategic execution, mirroring previous quarters’ themes.

QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER COMPARISON

* Q3 showed acceleration in revenue growth (16% vs. 14% in Q2) and a significant increase in Google Cloud backlog (46% quarter-over-quarter growth).
* CapEx guidance was raised to $91–$93 billion for 2025, up from $85 billion projected in Q2.
* Cloud showed a sharper jump in operating income and margin compared to Q2, driven by AI product adoption.
* Management’s confidence in AI-driven growth, monetization of new experiences, and cost discipline was more pronounced, while analyst focus remained on sustainability of growth and operational leverage.

RISKS AND CONCERNS

* Ashkenazi cautioned that higher CapEx and technical infrastructure investments “will continue to put pressure on the P&L in the form of higher depreciation expenses and related data center operations costs such as energy.”
* She noted, “We expect the growth rate in depreciation to accelerate slightly in Q4.”
* Management acknowledged ongoing tight supply-demand dynamics in cloud capacity.
* Analyst questions reflected concerns regarding monetization rates for new AI search formats and the economics of longer query formats in AI Mode.

FINAL TAKEAWAY

Alphabet’s third quarter marked a historic milestone with its first $100 billion revenue quarter and robust double-digit growth led by AI-driven products across Search, Cloud, and YouTube. The company is scaling its AI infrastructure rapidly, raising CapEx guidance to support surging demand from enterprise customers, particularly in cloud AI. Management underscored strong progress in monetization through new AI-powered ad products and subscription offerings, while maintaining discipline in cost management despite higher infrastructure investments. Looking forward, Alphabet is positioned to capitalize on the expansionary effects of AI across its ecosystem, with significant capital deployment planned to sustain growth and innovation into 2026.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/googl/earnings/transcripts]

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