Oshkosh (OSK): Five-Year 18.2% Earnings Growth Reinforces Quality Narrative Despite Slower Outlook

Oshkosh (OSK) posted earnings growth of 18.2% annually over the past five years, with its net profit margin holding steady at 6.4% from last year. Shares are currently priced at $123.24, trading at a discounted price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8x, which is well below both the US machinery industry average and many analysts' fair value estimates. With consistent profitability, no major risk signals, and several rewards such as relative value, profit growth, and an attractive dividend, sentiment is expected to remain positive, even as the company's earnings and revenue forecasts trail the broader US market.

See our full analysis for Oshkosh.

The next section dives into how these latest numbers measure up against the major narratives shaping market sentiment. Let’s see where the data aligns with expectations and where it challenges the consensus.

See what the community is saying about OshkoshNYSE:OSK Earnings & Revenue History as at Oct 2025

Margins on Track for Expansion

Analysts expect Oshkosh’s net profit margins to climb from 6.3% to 7.8% within three years, supporting the idea that operational upgrades and less-cyclical business segments are setting up for higher earnings quality. According to the analysts' consensus view, recent wins in large multi-year government contracts like the USPS NGDV program and FMTV contracts should anchor stable margin growth over time.

Consensus highlights that a stream of higher-margin, recurring government revenue, coupled with investment in high-margin business lines, could drive sustained profit upgrades. However, reliance on federal program volume means margin transformation targets could be sensitive to policy or budget shifts, so clarity on contract execution is critical.

See how analysts expect Oshkosh’s government-backed contracts to shape profits in the full consensus narrative. 📊 Read the full Oshkosh Consensus Narrative.

Share Buybacks and Declining Share Count

Over the next three years, the number of Oshkosh shares outstanding is projected to shrink by 1.64% annually, as the company continues its strategic share repurchase program. Consensus narrative notes that stepped-up buybacks could amplify per-share earnings well beyond core revenue expansion.

A shrinking share count means each share may capture a bigger slice of future profits, especially if profit margins expand as forecasted. This approach could help the company deliver EPS growth that exceeds underlying revenue numbers, provided free cash flow supports sustained buyback activity.

Market Price Lags Both Targets and DCF Value

Oshkosh’s share price of $123.24 currently trails the consensus analyst price target of $150.46, and sits well below the DCF fair value estimate of $199.51. Analysts’ consensus view is that the price gap reflects both slower expected growth compared to the broader market and the company’s potential to rerate higher as multi-year tailwinds from infrastructure and technology innovation develop.

The attractive valuation relative to industry averages, with Oshkosh’s 11.8x price-to-earnings ratio compared to a US machinery average of 24.6x, strengthens the case that the stock is undervalued on both fundamental and relative terms. However, consensus cautions that if Oshkosh fails to deliver the forecast earnings or profit margin expansions by 2028, its market price could remain below fair value for longer than anticipated.

Story Continues

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Oshkosh on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

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A great starting point for your Oshkosh research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

See What Else Is Out There

Oshkosh’s slower revenue and earnings forecasts compared to the broader market could mean it lags peers in sustained, cycle-proof growth.

If you want investments with more consistent momentum, check out stable growth stocks screener (2108 results) to discover companies that have a track record of reliable expansion and fewer surprises.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include OSK.

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