IBM’s quantum bet could finally pay off

Investing.com -- IBM is betting its next big turnaround will come from the smallest things imaginable. At a recent event, executives including CFO James Kavanaugh and research head Jay Gambetta said the company’s quantum computing roadmap remains on track to deliver commercial gains before 2030.

If it works, it could restore IBM’s reputation for technological leadership and justify a valuation premium that looks generous by past standards.

The company’s quantum strategy rests on linking its hardware and software under a cloud-first model. It provides access to shared or dedicated systems through its Quantum Platform, which now serves more than 200000 users.

Its open-source software, Qiskit, is becoming a preferred tool for developers, much like Nvidia’s CUDA in artificial intelligence.

That ecosystem could be IBM’s best chance to embed itself early in what may become a large, high-margin market.

Kavanaugh said IBM is in talks with several governments and expects its mainframe presence to give it an edge in selling quantum

The company reiterated confidence in growing revenue and cash flow in 2026. Bank of America kept a Buy rating and a $315 price target on the stock, arguing IBM’s improving growth and free cash flow justify a higher valuation multiple than its historical range.

“We believe a multiple at the high end/exceeding the historical range is justified given the company’s improving growth and FCF trajectory with Red Hat,” analysts at BofA said.

The shares have risen this year, helped by stronger software sales and optimism that the quantum roadmap could add another leg to the story.

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