Why The Story Around Eli Lilly Is Evolving After Recent Analyst Updates and Company News

Eli Lilly’s fair value estimate has recently been raised from $891.62 to $919.33. This reflects a modest increase in the company’s intrinsic valuation amid evolving market sentiment. The upward revision follows robust quarterly performance and optimism for future revenue growth, even as projections have moderated slightly. Stay tuned to discover how ongoing developments and shifting analyst views will continue to shape perspectives on Eli Lilly’s stock narrative.

Analyst Price Targets don't always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value Eli Lilly.

What Wall Street Has Been Saying

Analyst commentary on Eli Lilly reflects a dynamic range of sentiment. The majority lean bullish due to strong revenue performance and successful clinical outcomes, while some express caution around valuation and competitor developments.

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

BofA increased its price target to $950 from $900 and kept a Buy rating after Eli Lilly's Q3 revenues and EPS surpassed both company and consensus expectations. The firm noted higher estimates for revenue and EPS through 2026, highlighting continued operational momentum. Erste Group upgraded Eli Lilly to Buy from Hold, citing the company's strong 2025 first half results and growing market share compared to peers. Multiple analysts, including JPMorgan and BofA, noted the potential of Eli Lilly’s obesity drug pipeline. JPMorgan stated orforglipron’s Phase 3 data met the higher end of expectations, reinforcing Lilly as a top idea with an Overweight rating. BMO Capital pointed out that Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and its differentiation from competitor products position the company well in the mature diabetes market. BofA noted that the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review’s updated draft report, which now considers the GLP-1 class cost-effective, is an important positive catalyst for Lilly and its rival Novo Nordisk. HSBC and other firms cited commercial opportunities for orforglipron. HSBC raised its price target to $700 from $675, suggesting the bear case for Lilly may have already played out with additional upside possible if market dynamics stay favorable. Operational execution, revenue growth, and positive clinical readouts are frequently emphasized by bullish analysts as drivers of upside. However, some highlight high expectations and current valuation as factors to monitor.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

Berenberg downgraded Eli Lilly to Hold from Buy and lowered its price target to $830 from $970, referencing high expectations for the weight loss franchise and suggesting that the recent upgrade cycle in the obesity market may have peaked. Daiwa downgraded Eli Lilly to Neutral from Outperform, set a $700 price target, and noted that upside may be limited after recent outperformance and heightened expectations. Some analysts, including those at Mizuho, highlighted recent competitor data in the oral GLP-1 space as disappointing, but also acknowledged that negative sentiment may be exaggerated compared to Lilly’s distinct positioning. Valuation concerns, the potential for upside already being reflected in the share price, and emerging near-term risks are recurring themes among the more cautious commentaries.

Story Continues

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!NYSE:LLY Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

What's in the News

Eli Lilly raised its earnings and revenue guidance for 2025. The company now projects $63.0 to $63.5 billion in revenue and $21.80 to $22.50 earnings per share, reflecting heightened expectations for its growth outlook. Results from the Phase 3 SURPASS-PEDS trial demonstrated that Mounjaro significantly improved type 2 diabetes outcomes in children and adolescents and successfully met all primary and secondary endpoints. The company announced a new collaboration with Walmart to make discounted Zepbound vials for obesity available nationwide at Walmart pharmacies. This expands patient access to weight management treatment. Eli Lilly revealed a $1.2 billion investment to expand its Puerto Rico manufacturing facility, supporting increased production of oral cardiometabolic and oncology medicines.

How This Changes the Fair Value For Eli Lilly

Fair Value Estimate has increased from $891.62 to $919.33. This reflects a modest rise in intrinsic valuation. Discount Rate remains unchanged at 6.78%. Revenue Growth projections have decreased from 18.7% to 16.3%. Net Profit Margin has risen slightly from 38.42% to 38.90%. Future P/E Ratio has fallen from 28.33x to 27.58x.

🔔 Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative

Narratives are a smarter, story-driven way to guide your investment decisions. Rather than simply looking at the numbers, Narratives capture how investors connect a company’s unique story to forecasts and fair value estimates. Available on Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives help you see when to buy or sell by comparing fair value to the current price. They are kept current whenever new developments are reported.

Get the full picture by reading the original Eli Lilly Narrative on Simply Wall St. Here are three reasons to follow along:

Explains how Eli Lilly’s expansion in obesity and diabetes treatments, along with manufacturing growth, is powering robust revenue and market reach. Breaks down the company’s innovation pipeline in specialty drugs and digital health, highlighting opportunities for future margin and earnings growth. Outlines the key risks facing Eli Lilly, from dependence on blockbuster drugs and pricing pressures to regulatory hurdles and competitive threats.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include LLY.

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