Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO) Yearly Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Investors in Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.8% to close at US$1,740 following the release of its yearly results. Fair Isaac reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$2.0b and statutory earnings per share of US$26.54, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Fair Isaac's 19 analysts is for revenues of US$2.44b in 2026. This reflects a huge 22% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 28% to US$34.84. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.39b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$33.70 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Fair Isaac's earnings potential following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Fair Isaac

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$2,008, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Fair Isaac, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$2,400 and the most bearish at US$1,230 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Fair Isaac's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 22% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 8.7% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 15% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Fair Isaac to grow faster than the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Fair Isaac following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Fair Isaac analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Fair Isaac that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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