MoviePass redux? Reinvented again as a prediction market-like platform

Tashi-Delek

MoviePass has evolved once again to offer a prediction market-style experience centered around movies.

The company recently launched the Mogul platform that allows users to draft movie teams of films, actors, and directors to compete in contests covering box office results, critical ratings, sentiment scores, and awards outcomes. Though the Mogul platform includes the opportunity for users to win money, the setup, for now, is actually closer to a fantasy sports contest on Hollywood topics. Still, the platform could compete for attention with prediction market platforms Kalshi (KALSHI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KALSHI]) and Polymarket (POLYMARKET [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/POLYMARKET]) and traditional sports betting players such as DraftKings (DKNG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DKNG]) and FanDuel (FLUT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FLUT]).

The company thinks the technology platform could redefine the moviegoing experience. The platform initially launched in private beta in May but is now open for everyone to join. The platform's inaugural game, Fantasy Studio, will give users a chance to share a prize pool worth up to $100,000. Players will build their own virtual film studios, assemble dream teams of movies, actors, and directors, and compete to predict net box-office performance and cultural impact. Each participant receives one million Mogul Coins, the platform’s in-game virtual currency, to draft their roster. Players climb leaderboards by forecasting real-world theatrical results. The first seasonal challenge runs through early January 2026.

MoviePass launched the stylized Hollywood wagering concept amid a recent global surge in prediction and fantasy markets, especially in the U.S. The company highlighted that its edge is that it enters the landscape with a unique entertainment-driven proposition, where success depends not on athletic statistics but on understanding film and talent performance and audience sentiment. "Prediction markets are rapidly exploding and expected to become the next trillion-dollar digital economy," stated MoviePass co-founder Stacy Spikes. "For years, sports fans have had their own fantasy and prediction leagues, and we should have a platform of our own," stated Spikes. Notably, Mogul is backed by the Sui Foundation, a layer-one blockchain supporting next-generation decentralized applications, and Animoca Brands, one of the world’s largest and most influential Web3 investors.

Of course, MoviePass has already had a colorful history. The company, which was founded in 2011 by Stacy Spikes and Hamet Watt, jolted the movie-going experience for a short time with its subscription-based ticketing service. The company's journey began with a beta launch in San Francisco, initially using a voucher system that was later replaced by a mobile app and preloaded prepaid card in October 2012. In its early years, MoviePass experimented with various pricing models, ranging from $15 to $50 per month for unlimited movies. The service gained significant traction in 2017 when Helios and Matheson Analytics acquired it and dramatically lowered the subscription cost to $9.95 per month.

The next chapter was painful for Helios and Matheson Analytics investors. The company's business model proved unsustainable, as it was essentially subsidizing moviegoers by paying full price for tickets while charging subscribers a fraction of that cost. This led to severe financial strain, and MoviePass began implementing restrictions to curb usage, such as limiting users to seeing each movie only once and introducing surge pricing for popular showtimes. Despite those efforts, MoviePass continued to struggle financially. MoviePass ultimately shut down in September 2019, and its parent company filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in January 2020. However, the company had a second act and transitioned into MoviePass 2.0, which let users choose from three membership tiers, each of which came with a certain number of credits that could be redeemed for movie tickets.

In 2023, MoviePass achieved profitability for the first time in its history to mark a major turnaround. MoviePass even secured an investment from Comcast's (CMCSA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CMCSA]) Forecast Labs.

The continuing evolution of MoviePass could also be of passing interest to Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/WBD]), Disney (DIS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DIS]), AMC Entertainment (AMC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMC]), Paramount Skydance (PSKY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PSKY]), Cinemark Holdings (CNK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CNK]), Cineplex (OTCPK:CPXGF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CPXGF]) (CGX:CA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CGX:CA]), National CineMedia (NCMI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NCMI]), IMAX Corporation (IMAX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IMAX]), Marcus Corporation (MCS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MCS]), and Reading International (RDI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RDI]) if it increases the spotlight on the film sector.

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