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Vodafone
What happened? On Monday, UBS downgraded Vodafone Group PLC (LON:VOD) to Sell with an 80 pence target.
*TLDR: Vodafone’s rally ignores three risks. UBS cuts to Sell, 80p target.
What’s the full story? Vodafone struts its portfolio reshape, cash returns, and German revival, but a +34% YTD surge leaves shares fat at a peer premium. UBS flags three overlooked bombs, cutting to Sell with an 80p target.
Fiber wars hit German MDUs: DT could soon crash the party with easier access. The team upgrades 7m units via a €7bn off-balance OXG JV, yet consensus ignores -€440m yearly wholesale costs. Faster capex, DT fees, or lost broadband share risks -3% adj. FCF (-4p/share). Vantage Towers’ 44.7% stake trades at a bloated 26x EV/EBITDAaL versus peers’ 15-18x.
Spanish revenue threats—Zegona’s 2028 renewal squeeze, network-sharing, or Telefonica buyout—could slash -2% FCF (-10p/share). Losing 1&1’s €300m EBITDA NRA to a Telefonica takeover means -7% FCF (-10p/share), though mobile market repair might cushion it.
Qorvo
What happened? On Tuesday, JPMorgan upgraded Qorvo Inc (NASDAQ:QRVO) to Neutral with a $105 price target.
*TLDR: Qorvo meets guidance, iPhone booms.
What’s the full story? Qorvo aligns with expectations, mirroring JPM’s foresight. The bank sees momentum in iPhone advances, with over 10% content growth for the iPhone 17. Aerospace and defense gains add to the optimism. Meanwhile, projections for the December quarter meet consensus as revenues decline by 7% sequentially, influenced by seasonal trends at a major smartphone client and the strategic retreat from lower-tier Android markets. JPM predicts a steady drop in Android business revenues, shrinking by approximately $200 million annually in FY26 and FY27, expecting a $100 million quarterly run-rate by FY27’s conclusion, half of which will stem from Chinese Android ventures.
In High Performance Analog (HPA), robust growth persists, excluding the silicon carbide segment. The focus remains on aerospace, defense, broadband, and wireless infrastructures. Conversely, Core Semiconductor Group (CSG) forecasts a year-over-year plateau, attributed to restructuring that de-emphasizes low-margin mobile and consumer sectors. JPM maintains its balance sheet with flat operating expenses in FY27, even as it embraces restructuring. Following the acquisition of SWKS, The bank elevates the rating to Neutral. Revised price target? It’s now $105, integrating transaction terms—$32.50 in cash plus 0.960 shares of SWKS for each Qorvo share
Story Continues
Kirby
What happened? On Wednesday, Citi upgraded Kirby Corporation (NYSE:KEX) to Buy with a $128 price target.
*TLDR: Citi upgrades KEX to Buy. AI datacenter tailwinds drive.
What’s the full story? Citi flips KEX to Buy—24% upside to target—like a riverboat gambler spotting loaded dice in AI’s datacenter frenzy. The analysts peg Power Gen exploding on +34% CAGR demand (14.9GW ’25 to 64.6GW ’30), AI CapEx ballooning +45% to $2.7T, agentic bots just warming up.Marine segment? Potential squall, but buybacks and backlog bloat from power systems for hyperscalers drown it.
Management deals aces, Citi says—upside trumps headwinds, truth stranger than fiction
Duolingo
What happened? On Thursday, KeyBanc downgraded Duolingo Inc (NASDAQ:DUOL) to Sector Weight without a price target.
*TLDR: Duolingo disappoints, KeyBanc downgrades. Growth slows, forecasts cut.
What’s the full story? KeyBanc’s upgrade on Duolingo hinged on product tweaks sparking user surges and paid conversions. Reality bites: 4Q bookings guidance flops, forcing cuts to 2026-27 forecasts and a downgrade to Sector Weight.
Third-quarter revenue hits $272 million, topping estimates; EBITDA $80 million clears hurdles. Yet daily users grow just 30% year-over-year in recent months—down from 36%—while the bank trims 2026 revenue 3% to $1.25 billion and EBITDA 9% to $379 million as teaching investments delay payoffs. Management bets on deeper learning over quick wins, trading near-term bookings for long-term loyalty.
The bank sees quarters of patience ahead before the owl’s wisdom pays dividends.
Trade Desk
What happened? On Friday, Benchmark upgraded The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) to Buy with a $65 price target.
*TLDR: TTD growth reaccelerates strongly. Shares oversold at lows.
What’s the full story? Benchmark flips TTD to Buy, tags $65 DCF target. Macro haze and restructure drag persist, but old growth demons vanish—3Q revenue ex-political blasts 22% y/y on CTV, retail media, JBPs (now half the empire), international fire.
AI scalpels—OpenPath, OpenAds, Deal Desk—carve efficiency, gut commoditization fears. EBITDA swells to 43% margins, FCF conversion jumps 50%, tariff ghosts silent. 4Q’s 18.5% guide reeks caution; 16x EV/NTM EBITDA hits five-year lows—blood in the water. The team boosts estimates, trims WACC.
Shares scream oversold.
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Street Calls of the Week
Published 8 hours ago
Nov 9, 2025 at 8:39 AM
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