Why Analysts Are Rethinking Intel After AI Partnerships and Turnaround Progress

Intel's stock outlook has shifted, with the fair value estimate climbing from around $28.42 to $37.27 per share. This increase is supported by renewed confidence in the company's underlying performance and revenue prospects. However, it is accompanied by a slight uptick in perceived risk as reflected in the discount rate. Stay tuned to learn how investors and analysts can stay informed as the narrative around Intel continues to evolve.

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What Wall Street Has Been Saying

Recent analyst commentary on Intel highlights a mix of optimism and caution, as Wall Street weighs improved execution and growth prospects against ongoing risks and uncertainties.

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

Several firms have raised their price targets for Intel, reflecting a shift in sentiment driven by improving execution, better demand, and a clearer AI strategy. For example, Morgan Stanley increased its price target from $23 to $36. Truist also raised its target from $21 to $39, noting both a Q3 earnings beat and positive developments in areas such as foundry operations. TD Cowen described Intel's latest quarter as a "refreshingly clean set of results and guidance," highlighting the impact of Windows 11 upgrades and server strength. The firm raised its price target from $35 to $38. Deutsche Bank cited Intel's "aggressive pursuit" to strengthen its balance sheet and continued investment in product roadmap and foundry services. The bank raised its price target from $23 to $30. Benchmark called a recent Nvidia partnership a "tipping point" for Intel's long-term positioning and upgraded the stock to Buy with a $43 price target. Barclays described the collaboration as offering "another lifeline." Roth Capital and UBS also raised their targets to $30 and $35 respectively, with Roth seeing improved AI footing from partnerships and UBS maintaining a neutral outlook despite the target bump. Near-term execution, foundry optimism, and transparency improvements are key factors driving these upgrades. Some analysts remain mindful of valuation and the need for further evidence of sustainable turnaround, but still acknowledge momentum in fundamentals and sentiment.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

HSBC moved to a more cautious stance, downgrading Intel to Reduce with a price target increase from $21.25 to $24. The firm called the recent rally "overdone" and emphasized lingering concerns about fab execution and whether the stock's re-rating is justified. Wedbush, while raising its target slightly to $20, maintained a Neutral rating and expressed reluctance to endorse the surge in valuation before seeing clearer proof of sustainable improvement. Morgan Stanley, despite raising its own target, described its outlook as "skeptical" regarding the reasons for the recent stock rerating and saw further upside as limited without fundamental supportive developments. Bears continue to flag valuation, near-term execution risks, and the importance of strategic partnerships translating into real financial turnaround.

Story Continues

Taken together, the recent surge in target price upgrades reflects improved sentiment based on Intel's more transparent strategy and operational momentum, particularly in AI and foundry services. However, not all analysts are convinced the turnaround is durable. Some warn that ongoing risks and a steep recovery path could temper further gains in valuation.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!NasdaqGS:INTC Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

What's in the News

China has banned foreign AI chips from state-funded data centers. The new mandate requires that upcoming projects use only domestically made AI chips. This policy directly affects global chipmakers such as Intel, AMD, and Nvidia, and could have significant implications for Intel's AI chip business. Intel revealed that it already has at least one major AI client adopting its advanced 18A/18AP process technology. This marks an early gain in customer trust for its next-generation manufacturing node. Intel's CTO emphasized that the upcoming 18A and Panther Lake technologies are essential for both the company's future and for maintaining U.S. chip manufacturing leadership. The CTO underscored these technologies as a strategic focus for the company. Industry leaders from companies including Microsoft, Nvidia, and Dell voiced their support for Intel's CEO in response to recent public criticism. These leaders highlighted the importance of stable leadership as Intel plays a key role in critical U.S. technology policy discussions.

How This Changes the Fair Value For Intel

Fair Value Estimate has increased from approximately $28.42 to $37.27 per share. This change reflects renewed confidence in fundamentals. Discount Rate has risen slightly, up from 11.30% to 11.64%. This indicates a marginally higher perceived risk or cost of capital. Revenue Growth Forecast has improved, moving from 3.46% to 5.56%. This suggests analysts expect stronger top-line expansion. Net Profit Margin projection has inched higher, increasing from 8.62% to 9.79%. Future P/E Ratio expectation has increased from 35.35x to 49.20x. This signals a premium being placed on future earnings potential.

🔔 Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative

Narratives are a smarter, more dynamic way to invest. They connect a company's evolving story to its financial forecast and estimated fair value, by blending user insights with numbers like revenue and margin forecasts. Narratives are easily accessible on Simply Wall St’s Community page, where millions discuss and update perspectives as new events such as earnings or major news occur. Using Narratives, investors can quickly compare Fair Value versus price, helping you decide when to act, with the full story always up to date.

Discover the full story behind Intel’s turnaround and AI ambitions by reading the original Intel Narrative. Here’s why you should follow along:

See how structural changes and a refined AI strategy are driving Intel's path to renewed growth and profitability. Track the real-time impact of new partnerships, operational updates, and global industry events on Intel’s fair value. Benefit from evolving analyst and community perspectives so you know what’s factored into forecasts and price targets as the story unfolds.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include INTC.

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