AI-linked investment lifted GDP by a half a point in early 2025, Pantheon says

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Pantheon Macroeconomics sees artificial intelligence (AI) as a growing force in U.S. economic expansion, with recent data pointing to a measurable lift from related capital spending.

The research firm estimates that AI-driven investment added roughly 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in the first half of 2025 — a boost they expect will persist in the coming quarters.

“We estimate that AI-linked investment lifted GDP growth in H1 2025 by about half a percentage point,” Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a recent investor note.

According to Pantheon, the clearest impact is emerging in sectors tied to computer and communications equipment, software, and certain non-residential construction projects — particularly data centers — as well as upgrades to power and communications infrastructure needed to handle the high energy demands of large-scale AI models.

While spending on data centers has jumped in recent months, it remains small at just 0.1 percentage points of GDP. Outlays on power and communications structures have been steady but insufficient to significantly shift growth. Instead, the acceleration has been led by sustained increases in software and tech equipment spending.

Notably, the sharp rise in tech equipment investment seen in Q1 — initially thought to be driven by pre-tariff buying — persisted into Q2, even as imports of other goods slowed.

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