Morgan Stanley Turns More Bullish on Apple as iPhone Builds Jump 8%

Morgan Stanley's feeling more upbeat about Apple's iPhone (NASDAQ:AAPL) story this fall and it's not just a hunch.Analyst Erik Woodring and his team have bumped their September-quarter build forecast up 8%, thanks to better-than-expected sales in June that left store shelves a little too bare.

That's giving Apple room to refill the channel with about 54 million iPhones all from the new 16 and Pro Max lines compared to 50 million previously.The firm's bigger-picture bullishness hasn't changed much since last summer.

They still see a lot working in Apple's favor: iPhone owners hanging onto older devices longer (which means pent-up upgrade demand), new designs in the pipeline, margin-friendly cost structures, and untapped pricing power in both hardware and services. Plus, tariff fears have cooled, regulation doesn't look like an immediate choke point, and Apple's stock is sitting at a valuation in line with its five-year average which gives room for upside if estimates keep ticking higher.

They're holding their 55 million shipment forecast for September, but beyond that, the 2025 second-half iPhone 17 build plans are steady at 80 to 85 million units. The wild card? Apple's holiday quarter is notoriously swingy December builds have jumped anywhere from +35% to +71% quarter-over-quarter in recent (non-COVID) years.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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