Oil prices rise as US crude stockpiles shrink the most since mid-June

Oil (BZ=F, CL=F)

Oil prices continued to gain on Thursday, up 0.9% at the time of writing, after US crude stockpiles shrank the most since mid-June.

Brent (BZ=F) traded around $67 a barrel after climbing 1.6% on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) was at $63.

It comes as oil is still down more than 10% year-to-date amid concerns about the fallout from US trade policies and as Opec+ returns idled production. Traders are also keeping a focus on progress toward a ceasefire for the war in Ukraine.

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Moscow has largely kept its oil flowing despite an array of sanctions, with a large chunk going to India. However, the South Asian nation has been singled out for criticism by the US administration for buying Russia crude, with US president Donald Trump threatening New Delhi with economic penalties.

John Driscoll, director and founder of Singapore-based consultant JTD Energy Services Pte, said: “In the long run, you got to look at the fundamentals and expect that we’re going to be tumbling toward the downside up to at least the middle part of next year."

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Pound (GBPUSD=X)

The pound rose 0.1% against the US dollar as the UK posted its biggest growth in business activity in a year this month, led by a solid upturn in the service sector.

The flash reading from S&P Global showed improvement across the private sector, despite employment remaining weak, with companies cutting hiring for an eleventh month.

The headline index rose to 53.0 in August from 51.5 in July, indicating faster expansion in business activity. Meanwhile, input cost inflation edged up to its highest since May.

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It follows stronger-than-expected inflation data published on Wednesday, which effectively ruled out the chances of a September interest rate cut.

Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation increased to 3.8% in July from 3.6% in June, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. Most economists had been forecasting a rise to 3.7%.

The US dollar index (DX-Y.NYB), which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was muted, up 0.03% to 98.25.

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Gold (GC=F)

Gold prices were muted on Thursday as investors focused on the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on future US interest rate moves.

The annual symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Wyoming, brings together central bankers, policymakers, and economists to discuss long-term challenges facing the global economy.

Traders currently expect an 85% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

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It comes as the minutes of the last US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday night showed that two governors backed an interest rate cut.

Policymakers on the federal open market committee (FOMC) were concerned about the state of the labour market and elevated inflation, however most agreed that it was too soon to issue a cut.

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said: "Yesterday’s FOMC minutes further dampened investor mood and accelerated the equity selloff – again led by a significant drop across Big Tech. The minutes stated that Fed officials were worried about both weakening jobs data and inflation risks, but that 'a majority of participants judged the upside risks to inflation as the greater of these two risks'.

"That means officials remain inclined to prioritise inflation control by keeping monetary policy tight rather than cutting rates.

"Yet, one caveat makes the minutes look less hawkish than they first appeared: this meeting was held before the release of the problematic July jobs report – with big downside revisions – that spooked investors and fuelled expectations for a September cut.

"Jerome Powell’s speech tomorrow could therefore strike a middle ground: acknowledging rising concern about the labour market, while underscoring that inflation remains a key risk to be addressed carefully."

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