10x Genomics signals 5% sequential revenue growth for Q4 2025 as new product launches drive adoption

Earnings Call Insights: 10x Genomics (TXG) Q3 2025

MANAGEMENT VIEW

* Serge Saxonov, CEO and Co-Founder, outlined that the company "exceeded the top end of our guidance range in the third quarter with total revenue of $149 million." He emphasized strong execution despite "continuing macro challenges," and highlighted robust demand for Xenium consumables which drove "double-digit year-over-year revenue growth" in spatial consumables. Chromium consumables showed "double-digit...reaction growth year-over-year," propelled by Flex and On-Chip Multiplexing assays.
* Saxonov described the launch of the "next generation of Chromium Flex," which is "becoming the default single-cell assay for many of our customers" and enables "massive perturbation screens and supporting AI-driven initiatives such as virtual cell modeling."
* The company ended the quarter with $482 million on the balance sheet. Saxonov stated, "This strong position provides us with both the flexibility to navigate the current environment and the resources to strategically invest in innovation and long-term growth."
* He also announced the start of shipping for Xenium protein, which allows detection of RNA and proteins in the same cell and tissue section. Saxonov said, "As a first-of-its-kind capability, Xenium protein represents a major leap forward, enabling comprehensive, multimodal insights, streamlining workflows and accelerating translational discovery."
* The CEO highlighted a partnership with Anthropic to "address the analysis bottleneck" in single-cell and spatial research and a clinical trial collaboration using Chromium to profile blood samples for hematologic disorders.
* Adam Taich, CFO, commented, "We exceeded the top end of our guidance range and total revenue for the third quarter was $149 million. This was down 2% year-over-year and up 2% sequentially, excluding onetime license and royalty revenue in the second quarter."

OUTLOOK

* Taich stated, "We anticipate revenue to be in the range of $154 million to $158 million, representing 5% growth compared to Q3 at the midpoint." He explained, "We do not anticipate a material change in customer purchasing behavior and do not anticipate the year-end budget acceleration we have previously experienced in the fourth quarter."
* Management expects the positive drivers of performance to continue into Q4 and confirmed that the potential impact of a government shutdown has been factored into the guidance.

FINANCIAL RESULTS

* Total revenue for Q3 2025 was $149 million.
* Total consumables revenue reached $127.9 million, with Chromium consumables revenue at $92.5 million and spatial consumables revenue at $35.4 million.
* Total instrument revenue was $12 million, and services revenue was $8.1 million.
* Gross profit stood at $100.3 million, with a gross margin of 67%.
* Total operating expenses were $132.5 million. Operating loss was $32.2 million, and net loss was $27.5 million.
* The company finished the quarter with $482 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities.

Q&A

* Madeline Mollman asked about the revenue mix and government shutdown assumptions in Q4. Taich answered that "it could be a little bit higher on the instrumentation side in Q4" and confirmed the shutdown is factored in. Saxonov added, "it's too early for us to really talk about 2026...visibility among our customers is quite limited."
* Puneet Souda inquired about spatial consumables and the impact of Flex v2 pricing. Saxonov explained that volume increases are expected to offset price reductions, saying, "overall, if you compare kind of an average, probably there is a 20% to 30% drop in the average reaction price. And we do anticipate that this will be more than made up in volume, especially over time."
* Daniel Arias requested details on Xenium and Visium contributions. Saxonov stated, "we're seeing more and more enthusiasm for Xenium in particular and kind of very consistent increase in usage of the platform...the trend has been more towards Xenium relative to Visium."
* Kyle Mikson asked about competitive risks from recent acquisitions in the space. Saxonov responded, "the gap in performance between our products and others has increased over the past several years, given all the product launches that we have had."
* David Westenberg brought up spatial performance in Europe. Saxonov cautioned against over-interpreting quarterly regional results, but affirmed, "we had a great quarter in terms of spatial consumables in terms of Xenium consumables in Europe."
* Kyle Boucher sought insight into China. Saxonov noted "good and robust demand on the ground" and improvements from previous go-to-market changes.
* Numerous analysts pressed on product transitions, pricing elasticity, and adoption dynamics. Saxonov repeatedly emphasized that lower pricing strategies are intended to unlock higher volumes and that early indicators are positive.

SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

* Analysts' tone was slightly positive but cautious, with repeated questions around pricing, product adoption, regional dynamics, and effects of macro uncertainty. Many inquiries sought clarification on guidance, sustainability of trends, and competitive positioning.
* Management maintained a confident and disciplined tone in prepared remarks and Q&A, with Saxonov stating, "We are confident in our ability to execute with discipline and agility as market conditions evolve." During analyst exchanges, management acknowledged uncertainties but reiterated conviction in strategy, often explaining, "We do anticipate that this will be more than made up in volume, especially over time."
* Compared to the previous quarter, analyst skepticism remained but was less focused on immediate funding risk and more on product transitions and potential volume gains. Management's tone was similarly consistent, emphasizing innovation, execution, and adaptation.

QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER COMPARISON

* Guidance for Q4 now projects 5% sequential revenue growth, contrasting with prior commentary that did not anticipate meaningful improvement in customer buying behavior. Previous quarter's guidance expected Q3 revenue to be broadly in line with Q2, factoring in a China pull-forward.
* Strategic focus continues to shift toward enabling large-scale experiments, AI-driven research, and translational applications, with product launches such as Flex v2 and Xenium protein now in market.
* Analyst focus this quarter moved from macro funding headwinds towards product-specific adoption, pricing, and competitive differentiation.
* Management sentiment remained steady, with confidence in new products and expanding addressable markets. Analysts continued to probe for evidence of sustainable growth and margin recovery.

RISKS AND CONCERNS

* Persistent macroeconomic and policy uncertainty, particularly in academic and government funding, continues to weigh on capital expenditures and customer spending behavior.
* Management addressed the risk of lower pricing with an expectation of volume-driven offsets, but acknowledged, "it's probably too early to tell where the sort of steady state of new products is relative to kind of our previous existing products."
* Regional volatility, especially regarding China and Europe, remains a challenge, though current demand signals are described as positive.
* The transition from Next GEM to GEM-X and introduction of new products brings near-term revenue headwinds tied to pricing and customer validation cycles.

FINAL TAKEAWAY

10x Genomics closed Q3 2025 with revenue at the high end of guidance, driven by robust growth in spatial consumables, rising adoption of Xenium and Flex platforms, and the launch of new multiomic and automation-friendly products. Management projects Q4 revenue between $154 million and $158 million, anticipating continued momentum without a year-end budget surge, and remains confident that strategic investments and product innovation will drive long-term growth despite ongoing macroeconomic headwinds and evolving customer spending patterns.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/txg/earnings/transcripts]

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