Confluent (CFLT): Assessing Valuation as Shares Hold Steady in a Volatile Market

Confluent (CFLT) shares have bounced around over the past month, with little in the way of major news moving the stock. Investors are still watching overall sentiment and fundamentals as the company’s business develops in the competitive software space.

See our latest analysis for Confluent.

Over the past year, Confluent’s share price saw periods of momentum but ultimately returned -19.72% year-to-date, with a one-year total shareholder return of -14.42%. Despite the volatility, recent weeks show the stock holding its ground as investors assess growth prospects and competitive positioning.

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With shares trading below analyst targets and strong recent revenue growth, investors may be wondering whether Confluent is an overlooked value in a shifting sector or if the market is already factoring in all future upside.

Most Popular Narrative: 18.6% Undervalued

Confluent's widely followed narrative places fair value at $27.87 per share. This is meaningfully higher than the last close of $22.68. This sets up a story of a company that the narrative believes is strategically poised in its market, despite volatility and ongoing sector headwinds.

The proliferation of data volumes and the fundamental shift toward real-time, event-driven architectures are expanding Confluent's addressable market. This positions its platform as mission-critical for data-centric digital transformation across industries and underpins sustained topline revenue growth and strong customer retention.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what fuels this high conviction? The real driver behind the valuation is not just top-line momentum; it is a bold future profit assumption paired with a premium earnings multiple. Curious which critical forecast powers these numbers? Get the full picture before the next big move.

Result: Fair Value of $27.87 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent optimization efforts by large customers and slower adoption among smaller accounts could dampen cloud growth and present challenges to Confluent's bullish outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Confluent narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Model Perspective

While the most widely followed valuation focuses on market multiples, our DCF model offers a different perspective. According to the SWS DCF model, Confluent shares are trading below fair value, with the current price of $22.68 compared to a DCF-based estimate of $33.70. Does this deeper value suggest future potential or lingering risks?

Story Continues

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.CFLT Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025

Build Your Own Confluent Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to take control of your research, you can shape your own narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Confluent research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include CFLT.

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