Gas producers Antero, EQT, Range, Expand Energy cut at Roth as gas oversupply returns

[Natural gas flame]
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Antero Resources (NYSE:AR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AR]) -5.8%, EQT (NYSE:EQT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EQT]) -5.1%, Range Resources (NYSE:RRC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RRC]) -4% and Expand Energy (NASDAQ:EXE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EXE]) -2.1% in Monday's trading as Roth Capital downgrades the four natural gas stocks to Neutral from Buy, saying "gas oversupply is back and likely lingers in 2026."

Roth analyst Leo Mariani said Henry Hub natural gas prices may remain challenged well into 2026 due to persistent oversupply conditions, "as the industry seemingly hasn't learned the key lesson of the past two decades that supply ruins the party, and even as the domestic demand growth environment is "as good as it has been in many years," gas prices likely will not meaningfully improve until supply growth is constrained, and 2026 CME futures prices of ~$3.85/MMBtu are likely too high.

U.S. natural gas oversupply again has hurt the market as producers dramatically ramped up volumes over the past month to 109B-110B cf/day from spring levels of 106B-108B cf/d, extra production that Mariani said is more than enough to take the gas market from reasonably tight to oversupplied, and domestic gas storage is now 196B cf above the five-year average, a surplus that is expected to grow into the shoulder season.

Mariani downgraded Antero (NYSE:AR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AR]), EQT (NYSE:EQT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EQT]), Range (NYSE:RRC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RRC]) and Expand (NASDAQ:EXE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EXE]) to Neutral and Comstock (CRK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CRK]) to Sell with respective price targets of $32, $57, $35, $98 and $12, expecting Henry Hub gas prices will be weaker than expected in 2026 and average ~$3.25/MMBtu and advising investors to stay with more defensive E&P names ConocoPhillips (COP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COP]), California Resources (CRC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CRC]), Conterra Energy (CTRA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CTRA]), Magnolia Oil and Gas (MGY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MGY]), Matador Resources (MTDR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MTDR]) and Permian Resources (PR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PR]).

MORE ON ANTERO RESOURCES, EQT AND EXPAND ENERGY

* Antero Resources: Betting The Benchmark Increased Profit Margin And Cash Flow To Repay Debt [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4806576-antero-resources-beating-benchmark-increased-profit-margin-cash-flow-to-repay-debt]
* EQT Q2 Results: Big Earnings Improvement [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4803682-eqt-q2-results-big-earnings-improvement]
* Expand Energy: Tax Savings Helps Offset Weaker Near-Term Natural Gas Price Expectations [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4806647-expand-energy-tax-savings-helps-offset-weaker-near-term-natural-gas-price-expectations]