Oil dips as prospects of Russia-Ukraine-U.S. talks raise hopes for easing sanctions

[Global Oil Market and Financial Trading]

Oil prices ticked lower on Tuesday as market participants weighed upcoming three-way talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, a development that could potentially lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian crude.

U.S. President Donald Trump said late Monday he has begun arranging a peace summit between Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, following intensive discussions with Zelensky and European leaders at the White House.

The potential breakthrough followed a day of tense diplomacy at the White House, where Trump ruled out calls for a ceasefire while Zelenskyy and his allies pressed for U.S.-backed security guarantees in any long-term deal. [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4486821-trump-says-he-is-arranging-putin-zelenskyy-meeting]

"Betting markets aren’t overly convinced that we’ll see a ceasefire before the end of the year. Polymarkets is showing a 38% chance of a ceasefire, well below the peak of 78% seen in March. The modest price action in the oil market this morning appears to fit with this view," ING analysts said.

"The other big issue relating to Russia-Ukraine is the secondary tariffs the US placed on India for its imports of Russian oil. The deadline (27 August) to come to a deal before tariffs are introduced is nearing."

Brent Futures (CO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM]) were down 1% to $65.97 at the time of publishing, while crude oil futures (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) slipped 0.93% to $62.83.

The more active October WTI contract was down 9 cents, or 0.14%, at $62.61 a barrel. Prices settled around 1% higher in the previous session.

“An outcome which would see a ratcheting down of tensions and remove threats of secondary tariffs or sanctions would see oil drift lower toward our $58 per barrel Q4-25/Q1-26 average target,” Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said in a note.

MORE ON ENERGY, ETC.

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* Trump says he is arranging Putin-Zelenskyy meeting [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4486821-trump-says-he-is-arranging-putin-zelenskyy-meeting]
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