Walsh Pure Technicals - Pure Hedge Division

Jon Wiedeman                                                                                                                          8/26/2025 

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DAILY ZSX5: 

November beans closed the day higher with the recent volatile soybean oil market sharply lower.  I am keeping an eye on last week's high of 1062 ¾ as resistance for November beans then followed by 1074 ¼. As far as support on the daily charts we continue to have a cluster of moving averages sitting below the market starting with the 14 day at (1032 ¾) 100 day (1027) 200 day (1026 ¼) and lastly the 50 day at (1025). (see chart below).

WEEKLY ZSX5:

Looking at the weekly charts for November we have resistance at 1062 ¾ which was last week's high then 1074 ¼ to follow which was the month of June’s high.  The 100 day moving average is also at 1092 ½. Just like the daily charts, the weekly charts have a good number of moving averages as support starting with the 21 day at (1032 ½) and the 50 day) (1031 ½) (see chart below).

 

FUNDAMENTALS:

November beans traded both sides of unchanged today before settling a fraction higher with soybean oil sharply lower.  China has sent negotiators to the US so there are signs of some sort of trade deal to get completed soon.  Obviously, the elephant in the room is China being absent of purchasing any of our beans even though we are the cheapest.  Crop conditions also improved for beans 1% in the good to excellent category which is now at 69%. We will continue to monitor the talks with China as well as the daily sales announcements.

TRADE IDEAS: 

Still like being long the 1050-1100 call spread in November beans for 10 cents. 

 

DAILY ZCZ5:

December corn closed lower on the session today even with the surprise last Friday from the Pro Farmer crop tour’s corn yield. Dec corn has been on a decent rally since the USDA came out with their august crop numbers.  We haven’t been able to take out the 50 day moving average which is sitting at 416 ¾ today.  With yesterday’s high sitting at 416 ½ I am using those two numbers for resistance then followed by the 100 day which is at 432 ¼.  For support on the daily charts, we have the 21 day at 406 and the 14 day moving average at 405 as well as last week's low of 401 ¼. (see chart below). 

WEEKLY ZCZ5:

Looking at the weekly charts for December corn we traded above last week’s high and looking at longer term resistance I am using 424 which the 14 day and then 433 ¼ which is the 21 day. (see chart below).

FUNDAMENTALS: 

With Pro Farmer crop tour completed and coming in at 182.7 bu per acre which is well below the USDA August estimate of 188.8! That has definitely been a supportive factor as well as corn demand as of late. Trade deal talks continue with China being present here in the US for talks this week. Corn crop condition remains unchanged at 71% good to excellent for last week and weather will be another thing to keep an eye on going forward.

TRADE IDEAS:

Buying the December 410-450 call spread for 8½ cents.

DAILY ZWZ5:

December closed the daily higher even with an increase of Russian crop estimates. Currently on the daily charts we traded above last week’s high of 534 ¼ to 535 ½. Dec wheat was not able to take out yesterday’s high of 535 ½ so we will use that as short-term resistance followed by 543 then the 50 day moving average at 554 ½. With support coming in at 525. (see chart below). 

 

 

 

WEEKLY ZWZ5:

December wheat took out last week’s high of 534 ½ with next resistance at 543 then 559 ¾ which is the 14 day moving average on the weekly charts. For support we have 517 ¼ which is last week’s low.  (see chart below).

 

FUNDAMENTALS:

December wheat closed higher even with some bearish news of the Russian crop estimates but also has the bullish news of a large export inspections.  With that being said we will continue to watch any headline news, weather in the EU as well as Thursday mornings export numbers.

TRADE IDEAS:

Still like being long the 530 – 570 Dec call spread for 9 cents.

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Jon Wiedeman

Pure Hedge Division

Direct: 1 312 957 8108

[email protected]

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