Gold hits record high above $3,500, U.S. dollar dips on rate outlook

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The U.S. dollar (DXY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DXY]) dropped to multi-week lows at the start of September, weakening mostly due to expectations of Fed rate cuts, while gold touched another record high as investors seek safe havens and hedge against inflation.

Spot gold reached an all-time high above $3,500 per ounce on September 1, 2025, marking a staggering 30% gain YTD as the yellow metal's safe haven demand grows amid global uncertainties.

Goldman Sachs has increased its projection for the year-end price of gold from $3,300 to $3,700 per ounce, pointing to strong central bank demand and rising interest in ETFs.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DXY]) dropped to multi-week lows at the start of September 2025, registering a ~1.3% slide over the last month. While the softness of the dollar is primarily attributed to an 87–90% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, with market pricing further cuts before year-end.

Additional pressure is seen on the political front due to Trump's aggressive stance toward the Fed and his firing of a Fed governor, which raised concerns about Fed independence and led investors to trim dollar exposure.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:GLD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GLD#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews]), (NYSEARCA:GDX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GDX#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews]), (NYSEARCA:GDXJ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GDXJ]), (NYSEARCA:IAU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IAU#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews]), (NYSEARCA:NUGT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NUGT#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews]), (PHYS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PHYS]), (NYSEARCA:GLDM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GLDM]), (BATS:AAAU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAAU]), (NYSEARCA:SGOL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SGOL]), (NASDAQ:RING [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RING]), (BAR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BAR]), (NYSEARCA:OUNZ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OUNZ]).

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