Oil prices slide on report of another possible OPEC+ production hike

[Data analyzing in commodities energy market: the charts and quotes on display. US WTI crude oil price analysis. Stunning price drop for the last 20 years.]
SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images

Crude oil futures fell sharply Wednesday, reversing the previous session's gain, after Reuters reported OPEC and its allied producers may consider another production increase [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-drop-opec-weighs-another-output-hike-2025-09-03/] for October at the group's scheduled meeting on Sunday.

Another boost would mean that OPEC+ would be starting to unwind a second layer of output cuts of ~1.65M bbl/day more than a year ahead of schedule.

The cartel already has agreed to raise production targets by ~2.2M bbl/day from April to September, in addition to a 300K bbl/day quota increase for the United Arab Emirates.

Most analysts have expected OPEC+ to keep its October production target unchanged because Russia and Iran cannot expand output further due to sales restrictions and limited capacity.

But OPEC+ has surprised traders several times this year with its strategy of reclaiming market share, despite expectation that the oil market will be heavily oversupplied in this year's Q4.

"OPEC has clearly shifted course this year, and while I don't dismiss their interest in capturing market share or aligning with Trump, they risk flying too close to the sun by rolling back cuts into seasonally softer demand," CIBC Private Wealth Group senior energy trader Rebecca Babin said in a note, adding that her base case remains that OPEC will not further raise production.

Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) for October delivery finished -2.5% to $63.97/bbl, and front-month November Brent crude (CO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM]) ended -2.2% to $67.60/bbl, the lowest close for both benchmarks since August 26.

U.S. natural gas futures (NG1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NG1:COM]) rose for a sixth straight session, with production lower and LNG feedgas flows holding up; the front-month Nymex October contract closed +1.8% to $3.064/MMBtu, its best settlement value since August 7.

Stocks in the oil and gas sector comprised six of the day's 12 biggest losers on the S&P 500: Diamondback Energy (FANG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FANG]) -5%, APA Corp. (APA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/APA]) -4.9%, ConocoPhillips (COP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COP]) -4.4%, EOG Resources (EOG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EOG]) -4.4%, Halliburton (HAL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HAL]) -4.1%, Devon Energy (DVN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DVN]) -3.7%.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USO]), (BNO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BNO]), (NYSEARCA:UCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UCO]), (SCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCO]), (USL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USL]), (DBO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DBO]), (DRIP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DRIP]), (GUSH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GUSH]), (USOI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USOI]), (UNG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNG]), (BOIL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BOIL]), (KOLD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KOLD]), (UNL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNL]), (FCG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FCG]), (NYSEARCA:XLE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLE])

MORE ON CRUDE OIL

* USO: The Ins And Outs Of Popular Oil ETF [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4819160-uso-ins-and-outs-of-popular-oil-etf]
* Macro Insights From August 2025: From Jackson Hole To Pigeon Holed [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4818959-macro-insights-from-august-2025-from-jackson-hole-to-pigeon-holed]
* The Commodities Feed: Oil Market Shifts Its Attention To OPEC+ Meeting [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4818432-the-commodities-feed-oil-market-shifts-its-attention-to-opec-plus-meeting]