Walsh Pure Technicals - Pure Hedge Division

Jon Wiedeman                                                                                                                               9/4/2025 

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DAILY ZSX5: 

November beans traded both sides of unchanged today and held recent support at the 50 day moving average which is 1023 ¼ to close higher on the day. Exports will be delayed until tomorrow because of the holiday trading week.  Looking at the moving averages on the daily charts in November beans we have the 50 day (1023 ¼) 200 day (1026 ¼) 100 day (1030) 21 day (1033) and lastly the 14 day moving average at (1043 ¾) which we will be using as resistance.   (see chart below)

 

WEEKLY ZSX5:

Looking at the weekly charts for November beans we have resistance at 1053 which is this week’s high as well as 1062 ¾ which was last week’s high. (see chart below) For support I am using the psychological $10 level.

 

 

FUNDAMENTALS:

New yield estimates came out from private analyst Allendale and their farmer bean survey came out with a yield of 53.2 compared to the USDA which was 53.6 bpa. US bean prices are currently under Brazil values so we will see if that can spark some demand with harvest about to begin.  Exports are delayed until tomorrow morning, so we get those numbers to trade off of as well as the Job’s number to see how that effects the outside markets.

TRADE IDEAS: 

Still like being long the 1050-1100 call spread in November beans for 10 cents. 

 

DAILY ZCZ5:

December corn once again held the 50 day moving average on the daily charts which is coming in at 414 ½. That would be four consecutive closes above the 50 day.  Looking at resistance we have this week high at 424 ¼ and then 430 ½ which is the 100 day moving average. (see chart below).

WEEKLY ZCZ5:

Looking at the weekly charts for December corn we have resistance at this week’s high of 424 ¼ then the 21 day moving average which is 431 ¾.  Support is coming in at 403. (see chart below).

 

FUNDAMENTALS: 

December corn continues to close above the 50 day moving average which is at 414 ¼.  Keep an eye on if we start closing below the 50 day moving average where we could see some weak longs liquidate in my opinion. Allendale came out with their farmer survey and posted a 187.5 compared to the USDA of 188.8. With harvest approaching we will also be keeping an eye on weather especially in the north central part of the US. With corn demand being pretty solid as of late we will get the updated export numbers tomorrow morning.

TRADE IDEAS:

Buying the December 410-450 call spread for 8½ cents.

DAILY ZWZ5:

December wheat made a new contract low today of 514 ½ and wheat closing lower three days in a row and also the only grain market that closed lower today.  Looking at the moving averages for December wheat on the daily charts we have resistance at (526 ¾) which is the 14 day moving average and (528 ¼) the 21 day. (see chart below).

WEEKLY ZWZ5:

Looking at the weekly charts we have resistance at last week's high of 545 ¼. Wheat currently is on its fourth week in a row of having a lower close. (see chart below).

FUNDAMENTALS:

Wheat is currently on its fourth week in a row of closing lower making the charts look pretty ugly. We will get exports tomorrow morning so we will see if that brings any buying interest and any also keep an eye on any tariff news.

TRADE IDEAS:

Still like being long the 530 – 570 Dec call spread for 9 cents.

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Jon Wiedeman

Pure Hedge Division

Direct: 1 312 957 8108

[email protected]

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