Libya Nudges Output Higher as NOC Targets 2 Million bpd

Libya’s crude oil output reached 1,388,330 barrels per day over the past 24 hours, up from 1,380,756 bpd the day before, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said on Saturday. Condensate production was 52,730 barrels, and liquefied gas output totaled about 2.57 billion cubic feet in the same period. The update came as global oil prices eased on Friday on supply and demand worries, even as hopes for a first U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this year offered a bit of support.

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Economic analyst Mohamed Mahfouz said exports have clearly recovered, with NOC production averaging around 1.4 million bpd in August 2025. He noted the corporation’s goal to lift output to 2 million bpd by year-end, helped by the return of bp, Shell, Eni, Chevron, and TotalEnergies. Libya’s light sweet crude has also regained competitiveness. Indian refiners have stepped up purchases to cut reliance on Russian grades, while EU imports topped $22 billion in 2024. Key terminals at Es Sider, Ras Lanuf, Marsa al-Brega, and Zuetina are running more efficiently.

Mahfouz cautioned that higher volumes alone are not enough. Stability, transparency, and fair governance are critical to sustain investor interest. He pointed to Libya’s first licensing round in 17 years, offering 22 blocks under terms that drew interest from top international firms. Converting momentum into long-term investment will require secure production sites and ports, transparent contracting and tenders, and a regulatory framework that reassures partners. He also urged deals that bring technology transfer, workforce training, and infrastructure investment, not just crude exports.

Institutional strength will be decisive. Mahfouz cited NOC’s Emad Ben Rajab, who pushed transparency and contract reviews after Libya’s Supreme Court overturned a July 2023 ruling against him, confirming he had no criminal record. Protecting technocratic leadership, he argued, is key to safeguarding the sector.

With 48 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and sizable gas resources, Libya is well placed to supply Europe and Asia. Proximity to European markets and future renewable projects could bolster its role. But political divides, armed groups, and corruption remain persistent risks. Lasting success, Mahfouz concluded, will depend on institutional discipline, security, and genuine transparency.

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