Walsh Pure Technicals - Pure Hedge Division

Jon Wiedeman                                                                                                                           9/25/2025 

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DAILY ZSX5: 

November beans closed the day higher in a relatively tight range with the soybean meal market closing down now 7 days in a row! Nov beans support on the daily charts is coming in at 1005 and then the phycological $10 level.  Resistance on the daily’s come in at 1020 ¼ then the 50-day moving average at 1026. (see chart below).  

 

WEEKLY ZSX5:

Looking at the weekly charts for November beans we have resistance at the 50-day moving average of 1028 then the 21 day which comes in at 1032.  For support I am using the $10 level then 984 ½. (see chart below).

 

FUNDAMENTALS:

Argentina’s export tax ended early and just after a few days it has hit the $7 billion dollar limit. China has now bought over 30 cargoes of Argentina beans this week with the export tax being removed.  Soybean exports came out this morning and were inline with the average trade estimates with Egypt being the top buyer of US beans. Next week we do have a Quarter Stocks report on September 30th at 11am CT. We will continue to watch any trade progress with China but there was a headline this morning that said President Trump will take some tariff money and distribute it to farmers, but nothing more on the extent of the headline. 

TRADE IDEAS: 

Long the 1050-1100 call spread in November beans for 10 cents. 

 

DAILY ZCZ5:

December corn ended up closing up 1 ½ cents on the day and made a new high for the week at 428 ¼. We also have a double bottom at 423 ½ which was yesterday’s low and todays.  For support on the daily charts, I am using 418 ¼ then 414 ¾ which is the 50day moving average.  We have closed above the 50day since the end of August so that will be an important number to hold. As far as resistance goes, we have last week’s high of 431 ¼. (see chart below).

WEEKLY ZCZ5:

Looking at the weekly charts for December corn we have resistance at last week’s high of 431 ¼ and followed by the 50day at 440 ¼. For support I am using 415 and then 403 ½. (see chart below).

 

 

FUNDAMENTALS: 

Exports for corn came out above estimates this morning with Mexico being the top buyer of US corn. Private analysts continue to come in with yield numbers below what the USDA is using which is 186.7. We will get updated government numbers next Tuesday at 11am CT with the Quarterly Stocks report.  There haven’t been any specifics for the farm aid package yet, but we should see the details in the upcoming week is my guess. Weather doesn’t seem to be a huge burden on harvest delays for what is forecasted but that obviously can change quickly.  

TRADE IDEAS:

Long the December 410-450 call spread for 8½ cents.

DAILY ZWZ5:

After making a new contract low of 507 ¼ on Tuesday, December wheat has rallied over 20 cents off the low and settle at 527 this afternoon.  Resistance on the daily charts come in at 533 ¼ which is the 50day moving average. For support I am using 507 ¼ which is the contract low then the psychological level of $5. (see chart below).

 

WEEKLY ZWZ5:

Looking at the weekly charts for December wheat we have support just like the daily charts at 507 ¼ then the psychological $5 level.  For resistance we have last week’s high of 535 ¾ then the 14-day moving average of 541 ¾. (see chart below).

FUNDAMENTALS:

Wheat has rallied 20 cents off the contract low since Tuesday with global demand starting to pick up. Exports came in as expected this morning with Philippines being the lead purchaser.  Russia’s wheat crop continues to have private analyst continue to raise production estimates.  We will continue to watch what the details are of the farm aid package that is supposed to be released soon.

TRADE IDEAS:

Long the 530 – 570 Dec call spread for 9 cents.

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Jon Wiedeman

Pure Hedge Division

Direct: 1 312 957 8108

[email protected]

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