Oil slides as OPEC+ seen likely to raise output again, Kurdistan resumes oil flows to Turkey

[Data analyzing in commodities energy market: the charts and quotes on display. US WTI crude oil price analysis. Stunning price drop for the last 20 years.]
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Crude oil fell sharply Monday following reports that OPEC and its allies are expected to approve another increase in production for November at its upcoming meeting, and Kurdistan has resumed oil exports to Turkey, combining to exacerbate concerns of an impending oil glut despite a higher geopolitical risk premium that affected prices last week.

OPEC+ is expected to add another 137,000 bbl/day to help boost market share when the cartel meets online October 5, Reuters reported Sunday [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4499681-opec-is-said-to-weigh-another-production-hike-in-november], and Iraq's oil ministry reported oil exports were flowing from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to Turkey for the first time in two-and-a-half years.

"With OPEC+ pivoting toward market share, fundamentals look softer, and oversupply concerns prevail," Rystad Energy’s chief economist Claudio Galimberti said in a note.

Crude oil flows from Kurdistan to Turkey's Ceyhan port are running at 150,000-160,000 bbl/day, industry sources told Reuters, and the resumption is expected eventually to add as much as 230,000 bbl/day of crude to international markets.

Meanwhile, Russia pounded Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine over the weekend in one of the most sustained attacks on the capital since the 2022 invasion, after Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure last week crippled the country's fuel exports.

Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) for November delivery closed -3.4% to $63.45/bbl, and front-month Brent November crude (CO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM]) finished -3.1% to $67.97/bbl, the largest one-day dollar and percentage decline since June 24, while Nymex natural gas futures (NG1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NG1:COM]) rose for the fifth consecutive session, as the November front-month contract ended +1.9% to $3.267/MMBtu.

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