Trump’s tariffs could weigh on oil and gas industry’s outlook, says GlobalData poll

Expansion of oil and gas became a cornerstone of Trump’s agenda for the second-term election. Since taking office, he has implemented a widening array of tariffs on selected countries and commodities to shield US economic interests. During his campaign, he proposed a general global import tariff in the 10%–20% range and tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods. The rollout, however, was initially disrupted by delays and policy reversals, with each new announcement provoking international reactions that heightened market volatility and created significant headwinds for economic growth. Over the past six months, the administration has raised and cut tariffs for various countries on multiple occasions, thus adding to volatility. Although imports of crude oil, natural gas and refined petroleum products are largely excluded from these measures, fears that the tariffs could fuel inflation, slow growth, and escalate trade tensions have exerted downward pressure on oil prices. Moreover, the frequent alterations in tariffs have puzzled industry personnel and observers alike.

Against this backdrop, GlobalData surveyed its readers to understand their views on the likely impact of President Trump’s tariffs on the global oil and gas industry outlook. The poll was carried out from May to August 2025 and received 204 responses over this timeframe. The overall response was quite diverse, which mirrored the uncertainty among industry personnel over the implications of tariffs on energy demand and supply. A little over a quarter of the respondents felt that the impact could last from six months to one year. A marginally smaller set of respondents opined that the impact could last a little longer, possibly up to three years. Both these sets of responses acknowledged the gravity of the overall challenges that lie ahead for the industry as it seeks to maintain the balance between profitability and long-term development plans.

How long will the impact of US tariffs last on the global oil & gas industry?Source: GlobalData. Note: Analysis based on 236 responses.

About 22% of the survey participants were unable to give a definite opinion, highlighting that the problem is unique and might be difficult to gauge. The degree of uncertainty has climbed markedly across the US oil and gas industry this year, with tariffs. Planning new developments is now extremely challenging because of the unclear outlook for end-use industries.

Approximately 14% of the respondents indicated that the impact could last over a longer time horizon, say five years. Such a prolonged impact could distort the long-term capital plans of companies that set five-year development goals and work towards achieving them.

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Lastly, around 13% of the survey participants felt that the impact could be of a short-term nature, lasting at most for six months, which might be true if policies remain consistent. These people might be of the view that such a timeframe would be adequate to gather the market sentiments and make adjustments to growth strategies.

"Trump’s tariffs could weigh on oil and gas industry’s outlook, says GlobalData poll" was originally created and published by Offshore Technology, a GlobalData owned brand.

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