Double Supply Whammy Knocks Down Oil Prices

OPEC+ supply hike chatter and Iraq’s Kirkuk-Ceyhan restart sparked the steepest daily oil price drop in nearly two months.

China Triples ‘Indonesian’ Oil Imports as Iranian Tankers Shift Routes

- China has posted a staggering increase in crude imports from Indonesia, a country that has supplied only one cargo of condensate to China last year, as Iranian sellers get increasingly innovative in their ship-to-ship operations.
- According to customs data published by Beijing, Chinese imports of Indonesian crude amounted to 2.7 million tonnes in August, tripling from the previous month, as Iranian tankers have repeatedly signalled calls at Indonesia’s Batam island, before heading off to Chinese discharge ports.

Invest in Gold

Thor Metals Group: Best Overall Gold IRA Learn More

Priority Gold: Up to $15k in Free Silver + Zero Account Fees on Qualifying Purchase Learn More

American Hartford Gold: #1 Precious Metals Dealer in the Nation Learn More

Powered by Money.com - Yahoo may earn commission from the links above.

- Indonesia consumes most of its approximately 600,000 b/d of crude production domestically, exporting only 85,000 b/d last year with most of it going to neighbouring Thailand.

- The previous destination for Iranian ship-to-ship transfers, Malaysia, has introduced new regulations to combat STS transfers in its territorial waters in July, under intense pressure from the Trump administration.
- Simultaneously to higher Iranian flows to Indonesia, China’s Venezuelan imports rose to their highest ever reading of 700,000 b/d after US, Indian and European demand faltered.

Market Movers
- US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) will lay off 2,000 workers, or 3% of the company’s global workforce, as part of a long-term restructuring following its 2024 purchase of Pioneer Natural Resources.

- US upstream firm ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) signed a heads of agreement with Equatorial Guinea to develop the EG-27 and B-4 offshore blocks, containing the Esmeralda and Ebano gas discoveries.

- UK oil firm BP (NYSE:BP) greenlighted its $5 billion Tiber-Guadalupe project in the US Gulf of Mexico, seeking to build out a portfolio of major greenfield oil investments, aiming to produce 80,000 b/d by 2030.

- French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) plans to sell all its renewable power holdings except those in Europe, the United States and Brazil, hinting at a potential sale of its $8 billion Indian portfolio.

Tuesday, September 30, 2025

The double whammy of OPEC+ speculation about a potential doubling or tripling of the expected 137,000 b/d supply hike and Iraq’s successful restart of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline have triggered the sharpest daily declines in almost two months, sending ICE Brent to $67 per barrel. Barring Russian product export declines and refinery damage, the list of potentially bullish factors ahead seems rather slim.

Iraq Restarts Kurdish Oil Flows. Iraq has successfully restarted flows via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, with Kurdish oil flowing towards the Mediterranean for the first time since March 2023 as pipeline flows are reportedly amounting to 150,000-160,000 b/d after their resumption.

Story Continues

OPEC+ Pushes for Maximum Unwinding. According to media reports, OPEC+ is expected to greenlight another monthly increase of at least 137,000 b/d at its meeting next Sunday, continuing to bring back production from the second 1.65 million b/d tranche of supply cuts by eight members.

Re-Emerging After Lull, Houthis Strike Again. A Dutch-flagged cargo ship was struck by Houthi drones in the Gulf of Aden this Monday, suffering ‘substantial damage’ according to its operator Spliethoff, marking the resumption of strikes by Houthi rebels after a five-week intermission.

Gold Breaks Past $3,800 on Geopolitical Weakness. Gold prices surged past $3,840 per ounce for the first time in history on Tuesday, with the US government’s looming shutdown strengthening the impetus for safe-haven investing, bringing the bullion’s total year-to-date rally to a whopping 45%.

Dangote’s Row with Unions Spiral Out of Control. Nigeria’s main oil and gas trade union Pengassan has called for a nationwide strike after the country’s 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery fired more than 800 unionized staff, blocking port operations at the port of Lekki and disrupting fuel supplies.

Trump to Fund Coal Plant Upgrades. The Trump administration will expand coal mine leasing on federal lands, opening up 13.1 million acres in North Dakota, Wyoming and Montana, simultaneously providing $625 million to upgrade and expand regional power generation fuelled by coal.

China Drags BHP’s Shares Down. Shares of Australian mining giant BHP Group (NYSE:BHP) dipped by almost 2% on Tuesday after China’s state-owned iron ore buyer CMRG mandated domestic steelmakers and traders not to purchase any ore from BHP, amid stalled contract negotiations.

Billionaires Are Taking Over Mexico’s Upstream. Mexico’s richest man, Carlos Slim, signed a deal with the country’s state oil company Pemex to finance the drilling of up to 32 onshore wells in Eastern Mexico at an estimated cost of $1.99 billion, boosting output at the Ixachi field.

Crimea Imposes Rationing Amidst Fuel Shortage. The Russia-controlled breakaway region of Crimea has been experiencing fuel shortages after the region’s administration imposed rationing measures, limiting purchases to 30 litres at a time, following Ukraine’s drone strikes on nearby refineries.

Henry Hub Returns from the Dead. US natural gas futures climbed to their highest since mid-July on forecasts of warmer-than-expected temperatures all through mid-October, hitting $3.30 per MMbtu in Tuesday trading as average gas output in the Lower 48 states dipped to 107.4 BCf/d in September.

Kazakhstan Eyes a Fourth Refinery. The government of Kazakhstan is considering building a fourth refinery with a nameplate capacity of 200,000 b/d in the southwestern province of Mangistau, planning to reach self-sufficiency in gasoline and finally expand into petrochemicals.

Sanctioned Indian Refiner Adapts to Sanctions. India’s 400,000 b/d Nayara Energy refinery, under EU sanctions since the bloc’s 18th sanctions package against Russia, has resumed flows to the West of Suez (Brazil, Turkey) and turned to payment in rupees after seeking help from local banks.

Tin Rises to Metal Prominence Again. Shanghai tin futures rose to their highest in six months, soaring above ¥275,000 per metric tonne ($35,050/mt), after Indonesian President Subianto ordered the closures of some 1,000 illegal tin mines on the island of Sumatra, often smuggled overseas.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

Serica Energy Expands North Sea Footprint with Prax Acquisition BHP Shares Tumble as China Halts Iron Ore Purchases Kuwait Says Robust Oil Demand Justifies OPEC+ Output Hikes

Read this article on OilPrice.com