Gold price could hit $5,000, analysts say

Gold (GC=F)

Gold prices eased slightly on Thursday morning but remained firmly above the $4,000 threshold, as lingering geopolitical and economic uncertainty continued to bolster demand for the traditional safe-haven asset.

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At the time of writing, gold (GC=F) futures slipped 0.6%, to $4,045.10 per ounce, while the spot price retreated by 0.2% to $4,030.54 per troy ounce.

Some of the metal’s recent haven-driven momentum cooled following comments from US president Donald Trump, who said a peace agreement in the Middle East was “very close.” His remarks came after Israeli and Hamas officials expressed cautious optimism over Egyptian-brokered talks that could bring an end to the two-year conflict in Gaza.

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On Wednesday, it hit $4,049.56 per ounce for its 40th record high this year. The metal has now doubled in value from the $2,000 level it held just two years ago. Since 2000, gold (GC=F) has outperformed global equities, delivering a return of more than 1,200%.

Matthew Piggott, director of gold and silver at consultancy Metals Focus, attributed the metal’s strength to continued macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility.

“With these factors likely to persist through 2026, we see no significant catalysts that would cause gold (GC=F) prices to decline meaningfully,” Piggott said. “Therefore, we expect gold to continue rising throughout the year, testing $5,000 per ounce.”

“Gold (GC=F) is at record high prices and in a strongly overbought territory. Yet, fundamentals remain supportive of the bull run,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said.

“Previous bullish cycles suggest that the rally has room to extend further. A rally to $5,000 per ounce is not ruled out.”

Oil (BZ=F, CL=F)

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors balanced news of a potential ceasefire in Gaza, which could ease Middle East tensions, against stalled peace efforts in Ukraine, which continue to underpin sanctions on Russian exports.

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Brent (BZ=F) crude futures rose 0.1% to trade at $66.32 per barrel at the time of writing, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures gained 0.2% to $62.65 a barrel.

Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed to a long-awaited deal involving a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release, part of a broader plan to end the two-year war in the Palestinian enclave. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would convene his government later today to approve the agreement.

The conflict in Gaza has provided upward pressure on oil prices this year, with investors wary of the risk that the violence could spiral into a broader regional conflict and disrupt energy supplies.

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However, analysts cautioned against premature optimism. "The devil is always in the details, and I would avoid speculating right now due to the many false starts that we have witnessed in the past," Rystad Energy's chief economist Claudio Galimberti said in a note.

Oil prices (BZ=F, CL=F) had risen roughly 1% on Wednesday to hit a one-week high, after fading hopes for progress on peace talks in Ukraine reinforced expectations that Western sanctions on Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter, will remain in place for the foreseeable future.

"As long as the war in Ukraine continues, the geopolitical risk premium is destined to remain elevated, as Russia’s oil production at risk remains high," Galimberti added.

Pound (GBPUSD=X, GBPEUR=X)

The pound weakened against major currencies in early European trading on Thursday, as risk-off sentiment continued to support demand for the US dollar, while the euro regained its footing following signs that France would avoid a snap election.

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Sterling fell 0.3% against the greenback to $1.3361 and was down 0.2% against the euro at €1.1498.

The US dollar index (DX-Y.NYB), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.1 % to 98.99. The move extended recent gains for the dollar as investors sought out safe-haven assets amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty across Europe and Asia.

The absence of fresh US economic data, owing to the ongoing government shutdown, left markets without short-term macroeconomic direction. The latest weekly jobless claims report, typically a key indicator of labour market strength, has been delayed.

In Europe, the euro found support after political turbulence in France showed signs of easing. French president Emmanuel Macron is expected to appoint a new prime minister by Friday evening, avoiding the need for a snap parliamentary election that had rattled investors earlier in the week.

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Outgoing premier Sébastien Lecornu, whose resignation on Monday triggered a sharp sell-off in the euro, said sufficient progress had been made to begin forming a new cabinet. He also suggested that compromise in parliament remained possible, reducing the likelihood of renewed political instability.

"The government crisis in France appears to have been resolved for the time being, as the resigned prime minister Lecornu has finally managed to resolve the crisis and forge a coalition government," says Ralf Umlauf, economist at Helaba Bank.

In equities, the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) was lower on Thursday morning, down 0.2% to trade at 9,532 points.

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