How Does Exxon Mobil’s Majnoon Oil Field Move Impact Its 2025 Stock Value?

If you have been eyeing Exxon Mobil and wondering whether now is the right time to buy, hold, or cash out, you are not alone. The energy giant has been making quiet but significant moves lately that are catching many investors’ attention. Over the last week, shares have nudged up by 1.5% and posted a modest 2.0% rise over the past month. Year to date, the stock has managed a steady 5.2% gain, though it is still clawing back from a 5.0% dip over the last year. Long-term holders, however, have plenty to smile about with a jaw-dropping 307.1% return over the past five years.

Recent headlines have focused on Exxon Mobil considering a return to Iraq’s Majnoon oil field, ongoing sector consolidation, and a planned cut of 2,000 jobs as part of a broader business overhaul. These events can change how investors perceive both the company’s growth prospects and its risk profile, potentially driving those short-term and long-term moves seen in the share price.

So, is Exxon Mobil’s stock undervalued? If we check the numbers, the company notches a value score of 4 out of 6 on our scale, signaling it passes four out of the six key undervaluation checks. Still, digging deeper into why these checks matter and whether there is an even better way to assess the company's true value is where things get interesting. Let’s look closer at the valuation methods used, before revealing a smarter perspective that can help you make more informed investment decisions.

Why Exxon Mobil is lagging behind its peers

Approach 1: Exxon Mobil Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates Exxon Mobil’s value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s dollars. This method is widely used because it focuses on a company’s capacity to generate profit over time, offering a clearer sense of long-term value compared to simply looking at share prices or earnings multiples.

For Exxon Mobil, the latest reported Free Cash Flow stands at $32.40 billion. Analyst forecasts cover the next five years, projecting strong growth, with estimates reaching $44.61 billion in 2029. Beyond that, future values are extrapolated by Simply Wall St using established growth rates. This progression is built into the two-stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, refining the estimate across a full ten-year period.

According to this DCF approach, Exxon Mobil’s intrinsic value is calculated at $259.08 per share. With the DCF valuation indicating the stock is trading at a 56.4% discount, the assessment suggests that the shares could be significantly undervalued in the market right now.

Story Continues

Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Exxon Mobil.XOM Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2025

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Exxon Mobil is undervalued by 56.4%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Exxon Mobil Price vs Earnings

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a popular way to value established, profitable companies like Exxon Mobil because it ties the company’s share price to its earnings power. Investors often prefer the PE ratio since it reflects how much they are paying for each dollar of earnings, which can signal whether the stock is priced attractively compared to its profit potential.

Growth expectations and risk both influence what a “normal” or "fair" PE ratio should be. Fast-growing companies or those with stable, predictable earnings can warrant higher PE ratios. In contrast, companies facing headwinds or elevated risks may trade at lower PEs. It is important to assess not just the headline number, but also what is driving the company’s future prospects.

Currently, Exxon Mobil trades at a PE ratio of 15.52x. This is slightly above the Oil and Gas industry average of 13.39x, but well below the average for its peers at 23.02x. However, Simply Wall St applies a more nuanced lens through its proprietary “Fair Ratio,” which calculates a fair PE for Exxon Mobil at 21.90x by factoring in its growth outlook, profit margins, industry conditions, and risk profile.

This Fair Ratio is designed to improve on traditional comparisons with peers or industry averages because it adjusts for company-specific details such as earnings quality, growth trajectory, and market capitalization. By personalizing the benchmark, it gives a more meaningful picture of where the stock should trade.

Comparing Exxon Mobil’s actual PE of 15.52x to its Fair Ratio of 21.90x, the stock appears to be attractively valued using this approach.

Result: UNDERVALUEDNYSE:XOM PE Ratio as at Oct 2025

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Exxon Mobil Narrative

Earlier, we mentioned there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives, a powerful new tool that helps you combine your view of Exxon Mobil's story with financial forecasts to arrive at your own fair value estimate.

A Narrative is simply your perspective on a company's future, clearly linking your beliefs (like revenue growth, profit margins, or risks) to a personalized financial forecast and ultimately a fair value calculation. Narratives make it easy to see how the "why" behind the numbers, such as new projects, changing market trends, or strategic pivots, influences what the stock is worth.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors are already using Narratives to make more confident buy or sell decisions by comparing their Fair Value to the current share price. Even better, Narratives update dynamically as new earnings reports or major news emerge, ensuring your outlook always stays current.

For example, a bullish Narrative for Exxon Mobil might see fair value as high as $174 based on strong earnings from Guyana and disciplined capital allocation. In contrast, a more conservative Narrative could set fair value closer to $126 by focusing on slower revenue growth and industry risks. This approach empowers you to invest based on your convictions, not just generic averages.

Do you think there's more to the story for Exxon Mobil? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!NYSE:XOM Community Fair Values as at Oct 2025

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include XOM.

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