Copper prices, Freeport-McMoRan rebound after Trump’s softer tone on China

[Pile of Scrap Copper Rod]
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Copper futures jumped Monday, regaining strength after Friday's tariff-driven plunge, following President Trump's calming words about China in a social media post over the weekend, with the front-month Nymex December contract (HG1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HG1:COM]) +5.5% to $5.166/lb.

With the current trade truce between the U.S. and China set to expire on November 10, investors are bracing for more negotiation theatrics in the coming weeks.

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FCX]) +5.6% after falling sharply on Friday; also, Ero Copper (ERO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ERO]) +6.8%, Southern Copper (SCCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCCO]) +6.3%, Hudbay Minerals (HBM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HBM]) +5.8%, Teck Resources (TECK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TECK]) +4.7%, BHP (BHP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BHP]) +4.4%, Glencore (OTCPK:GLNCY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GLNCY]) (OTCPK:GLCNF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GLCNF]) +4.4%, Rio Tinto (RIO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RIO]) +3.4%, Taseko Mines (TGB [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TGB]) +2.8%.

"Copper tumbled 5% on Friday following Trump's tariff threat, only to bounce back in Asia amid a softer tone from both sides," with gains driven mainly by fears of tighter global supply, while recent disruptions at major mines in Chile and Freeport's (NYSE:FCX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FCX]) Grasberg mine in Indonesia dampen growth prospects, Saxo Bank analysts wrote.

Copper prices are also lifted by relatively strong Chinese import data [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-13/china-s-iron-ore-copper-and-coal-imports-rise-to-annual-high] that reflects resilient industrial demand.

Analysts at UBS raised their 2026-28 copper price forecasts by ~15%, targeting $6.00/lb, or ~$13,250/ton, citing increased conviction that fundamental market tightness will emerge within the next 12 months.

UBS said that while higher than expected smelter output has kept the refined copper market in surplus recently, the supply disruptions are significant enough to shift the market toward deficit conditions.

Meanwhile, the annual LME Week kicked off in London on Monday, where analysts said industry experts likely will focus on bullish factors such as mine disruptions to long-term demand growth trends.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:CPER [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CPER]), (NYSEARCA:COPX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COPX]), (OTC:JJCTF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SM])

MORE ON FREEPORT-MCMORAN AND COPPER

* Copper's Long-Term Bullish Trend Supports Higher Mining Stocks [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4828922-coppers-long-term-bullish-trend-supports-higher-mining-stocks]
* Commodities: Middle East Tensions Ease Slightly [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4828744-commodities-middle-east-tensions-ease-slightly]
* Freeport-McMoRan: Too Much Uncertainty After Grasberg Incident [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4825942-freeport-mcmoran-too-much-uncertainty-after-grasberg-incident]