Crude bounces off five-month lows after Trump says India will stop buying Russian oil

[Data analyzing in commodities energy market: the charts and quotes on display. US WTI crude oil price analysis. Stunning price drop for the last 20 years.]
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President Trump said Wednesday that India's Prime Minister Modi has pledged to stop buying oil from Russia [https://www.reuters.com/world/india/trump-says-modi-has-assured-him-india-will-not-buy-russian-oil-2025-10-15/], lifting U.S. crude oil futures from five-month lows.

Trump has imposed tariffs on Indian exports to the U.S. to discourage purchases of Russian oil, as he seeks to choke off Russia's oil revenues and pressure President Putin to negotiate a peace deal in Ukraine, "so I was not happy that India was buying oil, and [Modi] assured me today that they will not be buying oil from Russia." he told reporters during a White House event.

Trump did not provide a specific timeline for India's curtailment, but said the country could not stop its purchases "immediately," calling it "a little bit of a process, but that process will be over soon."

The Indian embassy in Washington has not responded to inquiries about whether Modi had made such a commitment.

Russia is India's top oil supplier, exporting 1.62 million bbl/day to India in September, roughly a third of the country's total oil imports.

U.S. crude climbed over $59/bbl after front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) for November delivery settled -0.7% to $58.27/bbl in regular trading, and front-month Brent crude (CO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM]) for December delivery also ended -0.7% to $61.91/bbl, the lowest close since May 7 and the fourth loss in five sessions for both benchmarks.

Also, front-month Nymex natural gas (NG1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NG1:COM]) for November delivery finished -0.4% to $3.016/MMBtu.

Bank of America said Brent prices could slide below $50/bbl [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bofa-says-us-china-trade-tensions-opec-output-boost-could-push-brent-below-50-2025-10-15/] next year if U.S.-China trade tensions intensify while OPEC+ production ramps up, adding to recent bearish sentiment.

The International Energy Agency said on Tuesday [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4504110-oil-slides-to-five-month-low-as-unusually-bearish-iea-report-forecasts-bigger-surplus] the global oil market could face a 4 million bbl/day surplus in 2026, wider than its previous forecast, as OPEC+ and others raise output and demand remains sluggish.

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