Gold bounces on bargain hunting; J.P. Morgan sees gold averaging over $5,000 by late 2026

[stack of shiny gold bars 3d illustration]
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Gold and silver futures scored strong rebounds Thursday on perceived bargain hunting following heavy selling pressure in back-to-back trading sessions, as renewed geopolitical risks aided safe-haven demand and investors braced for key U.S. inflation data due on Friday.

President Trump surprised markets by imposing sanctions on Russia for the first time in his second term, targeting oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft, and he is also considering a plan to restrict a broad range of software-driven exports to China, in response to the latest curbs on rare earth exports.

Traders will focus next on Friday's U.S. consumer price index report, arguably the Federal Reserve's clearest inflation signal ahead of next week's policy meeting; the data is expected to show that core inflation held at 3.1% in September.

Spot prices for platinum (XPTUSD:CUR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XPTUSD:CUR]) in London surged by as much as 6.4% overnight to nearly $1,650/oz, the biggest intraday jump since 2020, with the benchmark spot contract hitting a $53.45/oz premium over futures, up from $28 on Tuesday, suggesting a scramble to obtain physical metal.

Platinum is "tightening heavily with dislocations now pushing extremes, echoing fears of another silver squeeze moment," TD Securities senior commodity strategist Dan Ghali said, as reported by Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan analysts maintained a bullish outlook on gold, forecasting prices could reach an average of $5,055/oz by Q4 2026, based on demand assumptions that investor demand and central bank buying will average ~566 tons per quarter next year.

"Gold remains our highest conviction long for the year, and we see further upside as the market enters a Fed rate-cutting cycle," J.P. Morgan Head of Global Commodities Strategy Natasha Kaneva said.

The recent sharp pullback reflects the market digesting the rapid price gains since August, said Kaneva, adding that gold should be viewed on a multi-year horizon.

Front-month Comex gold (XAUUSD:CUR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XAUUSD:CUR]) for October delivery closed +2% to $4,125.50/oz, and front-month Comex October silver (XAGUSD:CUR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XAGUSD:CUR]) settled +2.1% to $48.482/oz.

Even after the recent losses, front-month gold and silver are still up YTD by 57% and 67.5%, respecetively.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:GLD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GLD]), (NYSEARCA:GDX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GDX]), (NYSEARCA:IAU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IAU]), (NYSEARCA:NUGT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NUGT]), (PHYS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PHYS]), (GLDM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GLDM]), (AAAU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAAU]), (SGOL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SGOL]), (RING [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RING]), (BAR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BAR]), (OUNZ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OUNZ]), (SLV [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SLV]), (PSLV [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PSLV]), (SIVR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SIVR]), (SIL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SIL]), (SILJ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SILJ])

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