Copper Nears $11,000: The Silent Metal Boom No One Saw Coming

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Copper is back in the spotlight and this time, it's running hot. Prices are edging closer to last year's record highs, fueled by tightening supply and resurgent optimism over global demand. Three-month futures in London rose more than 1% to about $10,970 a ton, putting the metal within striking distance of its $11,000 peak. Aluminum, zinc, and tin also joined the rally, with aluminum touching its strongest level since 2022 a sign that the entire base-metal complex is waking up.

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The comeback has been swift. Copper the metal that runs through everything from homes to EVs has climbed roughly 25% this year, erasing the sharp losses from April when the Trump administration reignited the trade war. Traders are now looking past tariff risks and refocusing on the supply side, where disruptions and bottlenecks are starting to dominate market psychology. For investors, the narrative has flipped from macro fear to scarcity premium.

That scarcity is no abstraction. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) confirmed that its massive Grasberg mine in Indonesia the world's second-largest copper source remains offline after a mudslide halted operations. The company said it will provide a full update next month, but until then, the market is left guessing how long one of the world's most critical copper arteries will stay clogged. With demand expectations firming, the setup could be one where every ton counts and copper's next move might test just how tight the balance can get.

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