Crude oil extends retreat as traders shift to surplus prospects ahead of OPEC+ meeting

[Data analyzing in commodities energy market: the charts and quotes on display. US WTI crude oil price analysis. Stunning price drop for the last 20 years.]
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Crude oil futures fell for a third consecutive session Tuesday, as the market focuses again on oversupply worries and the possibility of higher OPEC+ production, returning more of the gains made from last week's move by the Trump administration to sanction Russia's biggest oil companies.

Concerns over an impending glut are persisting, with OPEC+ members expected to focus on a potential modest output increase for December at their next meeting on Sunday, according to media reports.

Germany's economy minister said the U.S. government has provided written assurances that the German business of Russia's Rosneft would be exempt from the sanctions because the assets are no longer under Russian control, which some analysts said gives the impression that there could be ample wiggle room on the sanctions.

While sanctions could push prices upward, the effect will be limited [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/surplus-capacity-limits-impact-sanctions-oil-prices-iea-says-2025-10-28/] because of the large amount of surplus capacity, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said.

Also, the potential for a trade agreement between the U.S. and China has helped reduce the geopolitical risk premium.

"I think the crude market made a large move quickly and stopped a lot of shorts out of the market, and the physical market hasn't given enough of a signal for higher prices, and we are retracing," Scott Shelton of TP ICAP said in a note.

Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) for December delivery finished -1.9% to $60.15/bbl, front-month Brent December crude (CO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM]) closed -1.8% to $64.40/bbl, and front-month Nymex natural gas (NG1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NG1:COM]) for November delivery ended -2.8% to $3.345/MMBtu, affected by warmer weather forecasts for early November.

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