OPEC+ to halt output increases after modest December rise

[oil pumps on sunset]
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OPEC and its partners will make one final modest oil production increase in December before pausing additional hikes through the first quarter of next year, as the alliance weighs rising supply against weakening demand.

The 22-member OPEC+ group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed via videoconference on Sunday to restore about 137,000 barrels a day next month, in line with the gains scheduled for October and November. Delegates said the move reflects a seasonal drop in consumption and a growing risk of oversupply.

OPEC+ has been gradually returning the 1.65 million barrels a day it cut two years ago, but new evidence suggests that the oil market may now be tipping into surplus. The International Energy Agency projects that global production could exceed demand by more than 3 million barrels a day this quarter, potentially leading to an even larger glut in 2026.

The decision comes amid geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty. The U.S. recently sanctioned Russia’s two largest oil producers, a step that briefly steadied prices after Brent crude sank to a five-month low below $65 a barrel. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is also expected to visit Washington later this month to meet President Donald Trump, who has urged OPEC to help curb fuel prices.

Despite the group’s efforts, many member nations have struggled to meet their production targets, blunting the impact of planned increases. Analysts from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase expect crude prices to drift below $60 per barrel as slowing demand in China and rising output from the Americas deepen the surplus.

The weaker market backdrop is already straining producers. U.S. shale companies warn that capital investment is waning, and Saudi Arabia faces a widening fiscal deficit that has forced cuts to flagship development projects such as Neom.

OPEC+ ministers are scheduled to reconvene on November 30 to assess production plans for 2026.

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