Morgan Stanley lifts oil outlook after OPEC+ pause; UBS keeps Brent at $60–70/bbl

[Foreperson talking to a blue-collar worker at a chemical plant]
Hispanolistic

Morgan Stanley increased its short-term crude oil price forecast on Monday after the OPEC+ decision to pause production increases in the first quarter of next year, which alleviated concerns about a supply glut.

The investment bank raised its Brent crude (CO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM]) estimate to $60 a barrel for the first half of 2026, up from $57.50.

Brent crude futures rose 0.64% to $65.18 a barrel at the time of writing, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) was at $61.38 a barrel, up 0.66%.

Morgan Stanley estimates that from March to October this year, OPEC+ actual daily production increased by only 500,000 barrels, far below the announced quota increase of 2.6 million barrels per day.

The eight OPEC+ members taking part in the group's monthly meeting - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan, and Algeria—said they will continue to meet on a monthly basis. The next meeting is scheduled for November 30.

OPEC+ agreed to increase December output targets by 137,000 barrels per day, the same as for October and November.

Analysts at UBS, meanwhile, continue to expect Brent to stay in the $60-70/bbl trading range, with a year-end target of $62/bbl.

"By mid-2026, the market focus will likely shift to 2027, during which we anticipate modest supply growth in non-OPEC+ countries and demand to keep growing."

MORE ON CRUDE OIL FUTURES, BRENT FUTURES, ETC.

* WTI Price Forecast: Crude To End Week In The Red After Tuesday's Sell-Off [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4836609-wti-price-forecast-crude-to-end-week-in-red-after-tuesday-sell-off]
* Commodities: OPEC+ Set For Another Supply Increase [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4836193-commodities-opec-plus-set-for-supply-increase]
* October 2025 Commentary And Economic Outlook [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4836141-october-2025-commentary-economic-outlook]
* OPEC+ to halt output increases after modest December rise [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4512703-opec-to-halt-output-increases-after-modest-december-rise]
* China’s oil stockpiling cushions market as U.S. sanctions hit Russian crude [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4512698-china-s-oil-stockpiling-cushions-market-as-u-s-sanctions-hit-russian-crude]