Barrick Gold Q3 profit seen doubling amid CEO exit, lagging performance in focus

Barrick Gold (B [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/B]) is set to report its third-quarter earnings on Monday, November 10, before the market opens. Although profit is expected to more than double, investor attention remains on the company’s recent CEO departure and its underperformance relative to peers.

The consensus EPS estimate is $0.61 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/B/earnings/estimates] (+103.3% Y/Y) and the consensus revenue estimate is $4.36B (+29.4% Y/Y).

Over the last 2 years, B has beaten EPS estimates [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/B/earnings/eps-surprise-summary] 88% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 50% of the time.

Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 3 upward revisions [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/B/earnings/revisions] and 3 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 4 upward revisions and 1 downward.

Barrick (NYSE:B [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/B#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews]) stock rose to its highest in nearly 13 years in September, after analysts at CIBC and other firms said the shares are poised for continued strength after the miner's recent preliminary assessment [https://seekingalpha.com/pr/20233100-updated-studies-confirm-barrick-s-fourmile-as-one-of-this-century-s-most-significant-gold#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews] of its Fourmile project in Nevada.

TD Cowen's Steven Green called the project a "game changer," believing Barrick (NYSE:B [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/B#hasComeFromMpArticle=false#source=section%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews]) stock "still has significant room to catch up on valuation given its underperformance in recent years," as he raised his stock PT to $38 from $30 while maintaining a Buy rating.

Barrick Mining shares surged over 100% year-to-date, which is an outperformance of gold prices by a factor of 2x, yet concerns remain.

"Obviously, increasing gold prices will serve Barrick very well, boosting their profitability. The forecasted cost of gold sales was about $1,500 per oz, based on Barrick's latest fact sheet, and it doesn't take particularly complicated math to figure out how profitable Barrick will be in the future," one Seeking Alpha analyst said [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4828289-barrick-a-rocky-road-ahead].

"However, Barrick has been underperforming its peers in the past couple of years, and the sudden departure of the CEO indicates some instability at the executive level, which isn't a good sign for investors."

MORE ON BARRICK MINING CORPORATION

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