Major trigger Holmes believes could derail the bull run

Markets across equities, commodities, housing, and digital assets are pressing toward record highs, sparking optimism that the rally still has legs. But according to Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors, the bigger risk isn’t a credit meltdown, it’s fiscal policy.

Speaking with TheStreet Roundtable, Holmes dismissed comparisons to the 2008 global financial crisis, arguing that today’s corporate and banking balance sheets are far healthier.

“At this time, I don't see a credit crisis like we had in 2007 going into 2009 because the banks themselves and a lot of corporations and the S&P 500 are not as leveraged,” Holmes said.

Instead, he said monetary conditions are easing.

“Right now the monetary policy seems to be printing money. Rates are falling, they're not crashing.”

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The fiscal lever Holmes watches

Holmes sees fiscal policy as the true swing factor for risk assets — a “binomial” set of choices between taxes and spending.

“Whenever there's a big imbalance, gold and Bitcoin shine,” he said. “Taxes come with regulations, because regulations are an informal tax, and tariffs are an informal tax.”

He pointed to Trump-era tariffs as an example of how quickly markets can reprice. “When we had the tariff war announced for the world by President Trump, everything fell and shocked everybody. Then there was a reset and negotiations.”President Trump Hosts German Chancellor Merz At The White House

Innovation is real, not dot-com froth

Holmes also rejected the idea that today’s rally in tech and AI resembles the dot-com bubble.

“This is not a dot-com bubble where it was just eyeballs. There's no revenue. That led to a crash. This is revenue and cash flow and the spend is huge,” he said.

That spend is showing up in energy and infrastructure. Holmes noted that Bitcoin miners in particular have become pioneers in repurposing stranded and surplus power, from flare gas to unused wind and solar in Texas.

“And who's been really key in sourcing stranded electricity, unused electricity? Bitcoin miners,” he said.

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Where the break could come

Holmes said investors should keep their eyes on fiscal levers, taxes, tariffs, regulations, and government spending, rather than fear of collapsing banks.

“I remain really bullish regarding Bitcoin being the pioneers for data centers necessary to usher in this huge secular bull market and high-performance computing,” Holmes said.

Story Continues

Related: Explained: Types of Bitcoin mining

This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Sep 23, 2025, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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