SEC’s Approval Odds for 16 Spot Crypto ETFs Now 100% — Eric Balchunas

Sixteen spot crypto ETFs await SEC approval. | Credit: Getty Images.

Key Takeaways

Sixteen spot crypto ETF applications await final approval from the SEC in October. The SEC has asked issuers to withdraw 19b-4 filings after adopting new generic standards. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas says approval odds are “100%.”

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is on the verge of approving a wave of new spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Sixteen funds—covering Solana (SOL), XRP, Litecoin (LTC), Cardano (ADA), Dogecoin (DOGE), and others—are queued up for review, with analysts predicting a green light as early as this month.

The approvals would mark the SEC’s most significant embrace of crypto products since signing off on spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs in 2024.

Those launches shattered trading records and opened the floodgates to more than 90 additional applications now awaiting regulatory clearance.

A Shift in SEC Process

In mid-September, the SEC approved proposed rule changes from Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, and Cboe BZX to adopt generic listing standards for commodity-based trust shares.

The new standard eliminates the need for individualized reviews under Section 19(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, streamlining the approval process for ETFs backed by spot commodities—including crypto tokens.

As part of this shift, the SEC has instructed issuers of SOL, XRP, ADA, LTC, and DOGE ETFs to withdraw their 19b-4 filings.

Under the new system, an S-1 filing is sufficient for approval, allowing the agency to act at any time without waiting for formal deadlines.

“This change essentially makes the 19b-4 process meaningless,” Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said in an X post. “All that’s left is Corp Finance signing off on the S-1s. The baby could come any day.”

Analysts Expect Swift Approval

Balchunas, who has tracked the ETF race closely, says he now sees a 100% probability of approval for all 16 pending applications.

The SEC’s adoption of generic standards, coupled with repeated amendments from issuers like Solana’s ETF (which has filed four times), signals that final clearance is a matter of timing rather than substance.

Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett echoed the sentiment, noting that the new framework gives the SEC flexibility to approve products in batches—or all at once.

“As long as the tokens meet the criteria, the SEC can approve at any time,” she said.

A Broader ETF Pipeline

Beyond the 16 funds at the front of the line, nearly 80 additional crypto ETF applications remain in the pipeline.

Analysts say this week’s approvals could set the precedent for dozens more, accelerating Wall Street’s adoption of digital assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Story Continues

If finalized in October, the decision would cement 2025 as the breakout year for spot crypto ETFs—marking the moment the SEC shifted from reluctant gatekeeper to active facilitator of regulated crypto investment products.

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