Bitcoin’s new high has investors betting on further gains

Bitcoin rose to another all-time high this week, buoyed by a broader rally in risk assets amid the U.S. government shutdown. Some financial institutions and traders are betting that it will go even higher.

Standard Chartered is among them. The bank’s head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, told clients in a note that bitcoin could reach $135,000 in the coming weeks, pointing to record inflows into exchange-traded funds.

“The shutdown matters this time around,” Kendrick wrote, adding that during the last shutdown in late 2018 and early 2019, bitcoin was “in a different place than now, so it did little.” This time, it has traded more in line with tradition risk assets, he said.

The cryptocurrency rose above $125,000 over the weekend, topping a previous record of $124,480 in mid-August, buoyed by more friendly regulations from President Donald Trump's administration and growing demand from institutions.

"Bitcoin is the hurdle rate. If you can't beat it, you have to buy it. And I think the next 12 weeks are going to be very fun for bitcoin holders," wrote Anthony Pompliano, founder of Professional Capital Management, in a letter to investors on Monday.

The current rally means bitcoin has gained about 13% since late September, according to financial services firm Trade Nation. "Despite the rally’s intensity, the tone across the crypto space remained orderly, suggesting confidence rather than speculative frenzy," wrote David Morrison, an analyst at Trade Nation, on Monday.

The most recent climb has come at the same time as weakness in the U.S. dollar, as uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariffs pushed some investors away from the currency. Similarly, gold prices have shattered records this week, briefly topping $4,000 an ounce for the first time ever.

Not all banks are quite as exuberant about bitcoin's immediate prospects. Citigroup last week trimmed its year-end bitcoin target to $133,000 from $135,000, predicting that the dollar will gain strength again.

But even with the adjustment, Citi said it still expects further gains for bitcoin into year-end, though it argued that investor flows may increasingly favor ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, in the months ahead.

Derivatives markets are showing a similar pattern. Bitcoin options traders have clustered bets around the $140,000 strike for contracts expiring later this year, while open interest in futures and perpetuals has climbed to record levels, reported Bloomberg, citing data from Deribit and Amberdata.

The news came as plans to weave crypto into ticketing for the 2026 FIFA World Cup drew early scrutiny from gambling regulators in Switzerland.

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Officials there are reviewing whether FIFA’s sale of tradable digital tokens that can be swapped for match tickets should be treated under the country’s gambling laws. The tokens have already brought in millions of dollars for world football’s governing body. The Swiss watchdog Gespa said it is gathering information before deciding if further action is needed.

—Catherine Baab contributed to this article.

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