Trump Media to Enter Booming Prediction Markets Business

US President Donald Trump

(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump’s social-media company is getting into the prediction markets business, where record betting is attracting a host of new entrants.

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Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. plans to make prediction contracts available on its Truth Social network, allowing users to bet on events ranging from political elections to inflation-rate changes, according to a statement on Tuesday. Initial testing of the service, called Truth Predict, will start “in the near future,” the release said.

The initiative adds to recent efforts by Trump Media to capitalize on its retail following and comes just after trading volume on the leading marketplaces, Polymarket and Kalshi, hit a fresh record. Investors’ voracious appetite for betting on real-world events has prompted firms like CME Group Inc. and Intercontinental Exchange Inc. to look for ways into the business.

“For too long, global elites have closely controlled these markets — with Truth Predict, we’re democratizing information and empowering everyday Americans to harness the wisdom of the crowd, turning free speech into actionable foresight,” Devin Nunes, chief executive officer of Trump Media and a former Republican representative, said in the statement.

The product could add to the competing prediction market companies where Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, holds sway. Trump Jr., a board member at Trump Media, took on advisory roles at both Kalshi and Polymarket earlier this year. 1789 Capital, the investment firm where he is a partner, also took a stake in Polymarket.

DraftKings Inc. and Flutter Entertainment Plc, which are expanding into prediction markets, fell on the news.

Truth Predict will use Crypto.com Derivatives North America to enable prediction wagers, deepening the relationship between the digital-asset exchange and Trump Media. In August, Trump Media agreed to a deal to create a crypto treasury company for buying and holding the CRO token, whose blockchain is supported by Crypto.com.

The testing phase will be followed by a full launch in the US, and the service will eventually be rolled out globally. It will also feature bets on commodity prices and events across all major sports leagues, according to the statement.

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Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek has fostered ties with the president and his businesses. He was among the first crypto executives to visit Trump at Mar-a-Lago after his election victory last year, and the company donated $1 million to Trump’s inaugural committee. Its parent firm later gave $10 million to Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc.Marszalek in 2023. Photographer: Paul Yeung/Bloomberg

In October 2024, Crypto.com filed a lawsuit against the Securities and Exchange Commission after receiving a Wells Notice indicating the regulator’s intention to sue the company for operating as an unregistered broker-dealer and securities clearing agency. Two months later, after Trump was elected, Crypto.com dropped the lawsuit. The SEC closed its investigation in March without filing an enforcement action.

Trump Media — like other companies affiliated with the president’s family — is pushing deeper into an industry that’s gotten a massive boost from Trump’s embrace of crypto. Since returning to power, Trump has pushed through stablecoin legislation and appointed digital-asset advocates to key regulatory positions.

Polymarket, which operates the biggest predictions platform, uses blockchain technology to enable bets, while Kalshi does not. The explosion in demand has bolstered both companies: Polymarket is looking to raise money at a valuation of up to $15 billion, Bloomberg News reported last week, while Kalshi is fielding funding offers that would value it at more than $10 billion.

Even as they become more popular, prediction markets face heightened regulatory uncertainty in the US. On Monday, Kalshi sued New York’s gaming commission, saying the state agency is overstepping its authority by attempting to regulate sports-betting operations that fall exclusively under federal jurisdiction.

The lawsuit adds to the mounting number of cases over the legality of predictions markets that offer trades on the outcome of sports that states have long viewed as their regulatory territory. Sports betting is still illegal in nearly a dozen states.

--With assistance from Annie Massa.

(Updates shares prices.)

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