Hapag-Lloyd (ETR:HLAG) jumps 3.9% this week, though earnings growth is still tracking behind five-year shareholder returns

Explore Hapag-Lloyd's Fair Values from the Community and select yours

While Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:HLAG) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 20% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been very strong. Indeed, the share price is up an impressive 140% in that time. We think it's more important to dwell on the long term returns than the short term returns. Ultimately business performance will determine whether the stock price continues the positive long term trend. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for five years, so spare a thought for those caught in the 55% decline over the last three years: that's a long time to wait for profits.

After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

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In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Hapag-Lloyd achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 54% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 19% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days. The reasonably low P/E ratio of 9.23 also suggests market apprehension.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).XTRA:HLAG Earnings Per Share Growth August 14th 2025

We know that Hapag-Lloyd has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this freereport showing analyst revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Hapag-Lloyd, it has a TSR of 292% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

Story Continues

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 42% in the last year, Hapag-Lloyd shareholders lost 7.2% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 31%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Hapag-Lloyd you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.

Of course Hapag-Lloyd may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this freecollection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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