Aflac (AFL) Is Up 6.4% After Profit Rebound, Dividend Affirmation, and Buyback Completion – Has the Bull Case Changed?

Aflac reported third-quarter 2025 results showing revenue of US$4.74 billion and net income of US$1.64 billion, reversing a net loss in the prior year, while also affirming a quarterly dividend and completing a major share repurchase tranche. This combination of strong profitability, continued share buybacks, and dividend stability highlights Aflac’s ongoing commitment to rewarding shareholders and maintaining financial strength. We’ll examine how Aflac’s sharp year-over-year earnings turnaround impacts its longer-term investment narrative and outlook.

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Aflac Investment Narrative Recap

To be an Aflac shareholder today, you need confidence in the company’s ability to sustain earnings growth and manage risk in its core Japanese market while capitalizing on insurance demand in both Japan and the US. The latest quarterly turnaround was impressive, but the primary short-term catalyst, stabilizing premium growth in Japan, remains unchanged, as the underlying trend in earned premiums continues to be weak. The company’s heavy reliance on this market and persistent currency headwinds are ongoing risks, unaffected by this quarter’s results.

Among the recent announcements, the continued pace of share buybacks, over US$1 billion in the third quarter, stands out for its direct impact on shareholder returns. This move aligns with the company’s efforts to support earnings per share, but does little to address the challenge of negative premium growth in Japan, which is central to Aflac’s near-term trajectory.

Yet, despite this quarter’s strong profit rebound, investors should be aware that currency headwinds and negative premium trends in Japan...

Read the full narrative on Aflac (it's free!)

Aflac's outlook anticipates $18.5 billion in revenue and $3.8 billion in earnings by 2028. This is based on a 5.1% annual revenue growth rate and represents a $1.4 billion increase in earnings from the current $2.4 billion.

Uncover how Aflac's forecasts yield a $110.00 fair value, a 4% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other PerspectivesAFL Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

Simply Wall St Community contributors have set fair value estimates for Aflac spanning from US$98.64 to US$163.61 across three viewpoints. While views on valuation vary widely, all should keep in mind that persistent Japanese premium declines continue to weigh on future revenue and earnings outlooks.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Aflac - why the stock might be worth as much as 43% more than the current price!

Story Continues

Build Your Own Aflac Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

A great starting point for your Aflac research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision. Our free Aflac research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Aflac's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include AFL.

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