AGNC Investment Q3 earnings miss, but book value exceeds consensus as Fed policy eases

[Mortgage Backed Security MBS is shown using the text]
Andrii Dodonov

AGNC Investment (NASDAQ:AGNC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AGNC]) delivered Q3 earnings on Monday that fell short of the average analyst estimate but posted tangible net book value that beat the consensus estimate as mortgage backed securities' performance improved with the Federal Reserve's easing of policy.

Q3 net spread and dollar roll income per share of $0.35 [https://seekingalpha.com/pr/20272377-agnc-investment-corp-announces-third-quarter-2025-financial-results], missing the average analyst estimate of $0.39, fell from $0.38 in Q2 and $0.43 in last year’s Q3.

The Fed's less restrictive policy in mid-September and easing of fiscal policy concerns "drove robust financial market performance and a significant improvement in investor sentiment," said CEO and Chief Investment Officer Peter Federico. "Agency mortgage-backed securities were one of the best performing fixed income asset classes during the quarter and have now outperformed U.S. Treasuries for five consecutive months for the first time since 2013."

The current quarter excludes -$0.01 per share of estimated “catch-up” premium amortization due to change in projected constant prepayment rate (“CPR”) estimates.

Tangible net book value of $8.28 per common share at Sept. 30, 2025, topping the Visible Alpha consensus of $7.89, climbed from $7.81 at June 30, 2025. Economic return on tangible common equity improved to 10.6% from -1.0% in the previous quarter. Q3 2025 economic return comprises $0.36 dividends per common share and a $0.47 increase in tangible net book value per common share.

AGNC (NASDAQ:AGNC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AGNC]) stock edged down 0.2% in after-hours trading.

Q3 net interest income was $148M in Q3 2025, down from $162M in Q2 and up from -$64M in last year's Q3.

Investment portfolio totaled $90.8B as of Sept. 30, 2025, growing from $82.3B as of June, 30, 2025.

The REIT’s annualized net interest spread, including the TBA position and interest rate swaps excluding “catch-up” premium amortization, was 1.78% vs. 2.01% in Q2.

Its fixed-rate agency mortgage-backed securities and TBA securities’ weighted average coupon at 5.14% at Sept. 30, 2025, vs. 5.13% at June 30, 2025.

AGNC’s (NASDAQ:AGNC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AGNC]) CPR for Q3 was 8.3% vs. 8.7 % in the prior quarter.

During the quarter, AGNC (AGNC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AGNC]) issued 31.0M common shares through its at-the-market offerings for net proceeds of $309M.

Conference call [https://investors.agnc.com/events-and-presentations/upcoming-events] on Oct. 21 at 8:30 AM ET.

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