Here's What Traders Expect Intel Stock To Do After Earnings This Week

Kabir Jhangiani / NurPhoto via Getty Images Intel is scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell on Thursday.

Key Takeaways

Intel shares are expected to see an above-average move after the chipmaker reports third-quarter results Thursday afternoon. Thursday's report will be the company's first since it agreed to give the federal government a nearly 10% stake, a deal that's attracted investors like AI chip giant Nvidia and buoyed Intel's stock.

Intel (INTC) is set to report third-quarter earnings after markets close Thursday, and traders expect the stock to be unusually volatile following the results.

Intel shares are expected to move nearly 10% in either direction the day after this week’s earnings report, according to recent options prices. A jump of that magnitude, based on Monday's closing price, would put shares at about $42, their highest price since April 2024. Alternately, shares could decline 10% to end the week at just above $32.

Intel shares have moved an average of 6.5% after its four most recent earnings reports. In July, the stock dropped more than 8% after it reported an unexpected loss and issued a disappointing third-quarter forecast. The last time Intel shares rose on an earnings report was this time last year, when the company touted “solid progress” on its turnaround plan.

Why This Is Important

Intel's stock has surged in recent months, boosted by optimism about the federal government's stake in the chipmaker and what it means for its troubled foundry business. Expectations for a large post-earnings move likely reflect the stock's recent run-up and uncertainty about how recent investments will affect operations in the near term.

Thursday’s report will be Intel’s first since the federal government took an approximately 10% stake in the company. That deal with the Trump administration may have been a turning point for the embattled chipmaker, which has since received additional investments from Japanese venture capital firm SoftBank and AI chip giant Nvidia (NVDA), with whom Intel will partner on custom hardware.

During the post-earnings conference call on Thursday, investors will be hoping for updates from executives on those investments and whether they change the outlook for Intel's struggling foundry business

The deals have at least been a lifeline for Intel’s stock, which was treading water until rumors of White House negotiations began to circulate in early August. Intel shares have risen 90% since the start of the year, and all of those gains have come in the last three months.

Still, analysts are on the whole skeptical that the stock can maintain its recent momentum. Five of the seven analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha have assigned Intel stock a “Hold” rating, while two suggest selling. The average price target of about $30.60 represents nearly 20% downside from Monday's closing level.

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