Blackstone Q3 2025 earnings preview: Analysts are bullish despite wider credit market risks

[Blackstone hedge fund.]
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Blackstone (NYSE:BX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BX]) is scheduled to announce Q3 earnings results on Thursday, October 23rd, before market open, and analysts are bullish on the stock despite the recent wider credit concerns.

The consensus EPS estimate is $1.23 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BX/earnings/estimates] (+21.53% Y/Y) and the consensus revenue estimate is $3.11B (-15.03% Y/Y).

Over the last 2 years, BX has beaten EPS estimates [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BX/earnings/eps-surprise-summary] 75% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 38% of the time.

Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 6 upward revisions [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BX/earnings/revisions] and 5 downward revisions. Revenue estimates have seen 3 upward revisions and 1 downward revision.

Last quarter, Blackstone turned in [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4166756-blackstone-q3-earnings-beat] better-than-expected Q3 earnings as investment activity picked up, and fund appreciation was its strongest in three years.

Among its strategies, corporate private equity and infrastructure realized the best performances during the quarter.

This quarter, fee-related earnings are estimated to increase 22.80% from last year to $1.44B, while net realizations are expected to jump 60.07% to $360.96.

Morgan Stanley is relatively more positive on BX compared to the other alternative asset managers as the investment bank sees scope for positive management commentary.

"We see scope for positive management commentary regarding the outlook for building capital markets activity that will support continued earnings momentum and see scope for positive mgmt commentary around persistent secular tailwinds (e.g., rising allocations from private wealth, insurance channels) for which they are well placed," said analysts Michael Cyprys and Stephanie Ma.

"Further, we see their greater exposure to real estate and infrastructure as supportive given defensive nature and supportive structural global demand for AI-related build-out on both the datacenters and power," said the analysts in a research note.

Morgan Stanley's Q3 EPS estimate for Blackstone is 5.69% below the consensus estimate at $1.16, and the investment bank expects an upside surprise.

The stock is trading ~6.45% lower year-to-date and ~13.65% lower in the last one month, but has gained ~2.30% in the last five days in the run-up to its quarterly earnings release.

"Alts stocks have underperformed recently and YTD on the back of emerging potential risks to private credit and the capital markets rebound," said Morgan Stanley.

"We acknowledge recent headline risks but see capital markets as still in scope for a meaningful recovery, which will support the shares of the group. If recent private credit events prove to be idiosyncratic and incremental headlines do not emerge over the coming weeks, we see scope for capital markets green shoots to be in full bloom heading into '26, which should support meaningful transaction fees, fundraising, fee-related earnings, and realizations growth across the group," said the investment bank.

The Wall Street analysts [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BX/ratings/sell-side-ratings] see the stock as Buy on average.

Meanwhile, Seeking Alpha authors [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BX/ratings/author-ratings] and the Quant Rating [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BX/ratings/quant-ratings] system see the stock as Hold.

Quant gives the stock a score of 3.24 on a scale of 5, with an F for Valuation, A- for Growth and Profitability, C+ for Momentum, and B for Revisions.

"Sure, Wall Street's outlook for the alternative asset management/investment business includes sizable growth into 2026-27, but this will only be possible if America can avoid recession," said [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4826914-blackstone-is-a-sell-again-at-todays-lofty-valuation] SA contributor Paul Franke [https://seekingalpha.com/author/paul-franke].

"Blackstone has a track record of investor losses (and market underperformance) during economic downturns. The stock's worst losses (relative to the S&P 500) before 2022 came during the 2007-09 Great Recession and bear market for equities, plus the COVID pandemic year of 2020," said Franke in a recent research report.

"Blackstone is going for an amazing 16.4x accounting book value today, leaving little net backing if asset values and loan defaults become a problem in a financial crisis or general economic downturn," said the September 30 report.

Insiders are net sellers, with the company seeing six insider sell transactions against three open market buys in the last three months.

Short interest stood at 1.62% of the total float as of September 30.

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