Bumble outlines $216M–$224M Q4 revenue guidance as transformation accelerates with AI-first strategy

Earnings Call Insights: Bumble Inc. (BMBL) Q3 2025

MANAGEMENT VIEW

* CEO Whitney Herd emphasized a return to Bumble’s foundational focus on building trust with women, stating, "That's why we've returned to that core, winning with women because we believe that when women feel safe, respected and confident and when they meet quality matches, everything else improves." Herd discussed the ongoing "quality over quantity reset" and highlighted that the company is deliberately trading near-term volume for quality to support long-term trust and sustainable growth.
* Herd detailed major product updates, specifically the August launch focused on trust and safety, including richer profiles, stronger verification features, and a new coaching hub. She said, "We introduced richer profiles that let people show more of who they are. We added stronger verification features like phone number verification and selfie video verification to increase confidence."
* Herd outlined the strategic expansion beyond dating, positioning Bumble as "the love company," with efforts to build a global platform for both romantic and platonic relationships and highlighted the successful rollout of the new Bumble BFF app, which has shown increased retention compared to the previous version.
* Herd announced the development of an AI-first cloud-native platform to launch in mid-2026, and a stand-alone AI product that is in internal testing, describing these as critical to future innovation and personalization.
* CFO Kevin Cook, in his first earnings call since joining, noted, "Our third quarter results reflect our quality-first prioritization and ongoing strategic reset. We remain focused on improving member experience, strengthening the foundation of the business and maintaining financial discipline." Cook reported that Q3 results were near the high end of guidance for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA, but also reflected headwinds from member attrition and reduced marketing spend.

OUTLOOK

* For Q4, Bumble expects total revenue in the range of $216 million to $224 million, representing a year-over-year decline of approximately 17% to 14%. Bumble App revenue is projected between $176 million and $182 million, down about 17% to 14% year-over-year.
* Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 is expected to be $61 million to $65 million, with margins of approximately 28% to 29%.
* Cook stated, "While Q4 will be challenging, we currently anticipate that the rate of sequential paying user declines will improve beginning in early 2026 as we largely complete our trust and authenticity work."
* Management noted ongoing progress with direct billing initiatives and expects these will continue to be refined in Q4.

FINANCIAL RESULTS

* Q3 total revenue was $246 million, a 10% decline year-over-year. Bumble App revenue reached $199 million, and Badoo App and Other revenue totaled $47 million.
* Total expenses for Q3 were $183 million. On a non-GAAP basis, operating expenses were $163 million, down 15% due to reduced marketing and headcount restructuring.
* Cost of revenue was $69 million, or 28% of revenue. Product development expense was $25 million, sales and marketing expense was $32 million, and G&A was $37 million.
* Net income was $52 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $83 million, up 1% year-over-year, representing a margin of 34%. Adjusted EBITDA included a negative impact of $12 million from prior period indirect tax obligations.
* Cash flow from operations was $77 million, and the company ended the quarter with $308 million in cash and equivalents. Bumble repaid $25 million of its term loan in Q3 but will not make an additional payment due to a $186 million transaction to eliminate its tax receivable agreement (TRA) liability.

Q&A

* Nathaniel Feather, Morgan Stanley: Asked about the two-to-three-year vision and timing for a return to revenue growth. Herd explained the focus remains on "solving for people's pain points, particularly women's pain points," and emphasized the role of AI and a modern tech stack in accelerating future improvements. Herd said, "We do see an end in sight if that makes sense, and we're very fully committed."
* Feather also inquired about visibility into revenue and payer growth bottoming. Cook responded, "Trust and safety work and a reduction in our marketing spend together contributed approximately 80% of the decline in paying users on a year-over-year basis...that incremental progress is encouraging as well."
* Andrew Marok, Raymond James: Asked about the "improved" member segment and what’s driving movement to "approved" status. Herd described the opportunity to "improve the improved" by helping users set up better profiles, saying, "There’s huge opportunity here because the vast middle is somewhere stuck in the middle."
* Marok also asked about the impact of proposed Google-Epic settlement details. Cook responded that he had not seen the details but highlighted ongoing direct billing tests and cost of sales improvements.
* Ygal Arounian, Citi: Requested details about the stand-alone AI product and integration with core Bumble. Herd said, "The stand-alone product is something that, in my opinion, has never been done before. It is going to be very unique."
* Arounian asked about near-term product focus. Herd replied, "The least exciting features on paper are actually the ones that move the needle the most for us sometimes," highlighting improvements in customer service and profile experience.

SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

* Analysts expressed a tone of cautious inquiry, focusing on timing for revenue inflection, user base quality, and the strategic role of AI. Questions were generally neutral but pressed for specifics on bottoming trends and product innovation.
* Management maintained a confident tone in both prepared remarks and responses, repeatedly affirming belief in the strategy and improvements. Herd used phrases such as "we are very bullish" and "we have conviction in where we're headed." Cook discussed progress using precise data and acknowledged near-term challenges while signaling optimism for future improvement.
* Compared to the previous quarter, management’s tone has shifted from defensive explanations of restructuring to a more forward-looking, confident outlook, particularly regarding AI and product innovation. Analyst tone remained steady, focusing on execution and visibility.

QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER COMPARISON

* Guidance for Q4 revenue and adjusted EBITDA is lower than Q3 actuals and prior guidance, reflecting continued short-term headwinds from member attrition and strategic reset efforts.
* Strategic focus has shifted toward AI-led product transformation, with more explicit timelines for platform innovation (mid-2026 launch for the AI-first platform).
* Analysts continue to focus on user quality, growth inflection timing, and monetization, but questions are now more centered on product road map and AI integration.
* Management displays increased confidence in the long-term benefits of their reset, supported by early improvements in retention and ARPPU, versus the more defensive posture in Q2 around restructuring and cost cuts.
* Key financial metrics such as revenue, expenses, and margins showed declines year-over-year, while signals of improvement in user retention and ARPPU are now highlighted as leading indicators for future growth.

RISKS AND CONCERNS

* Management pointed to continued attrition in active and paying members as a planned result of prioritizing platform quality, with the "full quarter of impact planned from the initiatives implemented in August."
* Cook discussed the ongoing challenge of maintaining profitability and cash flow while investing in innovation and product upgrades.
* Analysts raised concerns about the timing of a return to revenue and user growth, as well as the competitive landscape with new AI-driven dating products entering the market.
* Management’s mitigation strategies include ongoing direct billing optimization, focused marketing, and targeted hiring in AI and product roles.

FINAL TAKEAWAY

Bumble’s leadership underscored a deliberate strategy to prioritize quality over quantity, supporting a multi-quarter transformation that trades near-term revenue and user growth for long-term brand strength and monetization. With explicit Q4 guidance of $216 million to $224 million in revenue and an emphasis on AI-driven innovation and trust enhancements, management signaled confidence in returning to growth after completing the reset. Early indicators of improved retention and ARPPU, along with a significant simplification of the balance sheet, position Bumble to capitalize on product-led opportunities as the company advances its platform and expands into broader relationship markets.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/bmbl/earnings/transcripts]

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