Is Kinsale Capital Group a Value Play After a 17% Drop This Month?

Wondering if Kinsale Capital Group is the right value play for your portfolio? Let’s unpack what’s really behind the numbers so you can make a more informed decision. The stock has experienced notable ups and downs lately, sliding 1.3% over the past week and 16.9% in the last month. This hints at changing market sentiment and potential shifts in risk perception. Investor attention has recently sharpened as broader market trends and insurance sector shake-ups have impacted sentiment. Kinsale’s position as a specialty insurer is in focus. Ongoing discussions about industry-wide claims and regulatory adjustments have added extra momentum to recent moves in the stock price. On our latest valuation checks, Kinsale Capital Group racks up a score of 3 out of 6, signaling it is undervalued on a few important metrics, but not across the board. Next, we’ll compare how different valuation approaches stack up, and at the end, we will show you an even smarter way to look at value that goes beyond the numbers.

Find out why Kinsale Capital Group's -12.2% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Kinsale Capital Group Excess Returns Analysis

The Excess Returns model evaluates how much profit a company can generate above the required return on its equity. Instead of focusing only on current earnings or cash flow projections, this model looks at whether the business is consistently earning more than what investors might expect given the risks involved. It is a way to judge the true value created for shareholders over the long run.

For Kinsale Capital Group, the key figures stand out:

Book Value: $80.19 per share Stable EPS: $23.58 per share
(Source: Weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 8 analysts.) Cost of Equity: $6.97 per share Excess Return: $16.61 per share Average Return on Equity: 23.52% Stable Book Value: $100.26 per share
(Source: Weighted future Book Value estimates from 7 analysts.)

Based on this information, the Excess Returns model estimates that Kinsale’s future profits will significantly outpace its cost of equity. The resulting intrinsic value is approximately $549.65 per share, which is about 28.5% above the current price. This analysis suggests Kinsale Capital Group may be undervalued at today’s levels, with room for potential upside if the company continues to outperform expectations.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Kinsale Capital Group is undervalued by 28.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 863 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Story Continues

KNSL Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Kinsale Capital Group.

Approach 2: Kinsale Capital Group Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies like Kinsale Capital Group, the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a popular and widely-trusted valuation tool. The PE ratio tells investors how much they are paying for each dollar of the company’s earnings. This measure is especially meaningful when the business is consistently profitable.

Growth prospects and risk levels are both key factors in determining what a “normal” or “fair” PE should be. Higher growth expectations often justify a greater multiple, while heightened risk or inconsistent earnings tend to warrant a lower ratio in comparison to peers.

Kinsale currently trades at a PE ratio of 19.3x, which stands well above the insurance industry average of 13.1x and the peer average of 12.9x. On the surface, this might make the stock seem pricey. However, those basic comparisons do not account for the company’s superior growth, margins, or unique risk profile.

This is where Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” comes into play. Unlike a plain industry or peer comparison, the Fair Ratio factors in Kinsale’s earnings growth, profit margins, size, risk exposure, and its place within the industry. For Kinsale, the calculated Fair Ratio is 11.1x, which is meaningfully below the current market multiple.

Given that Kinsale’s actual PE ratio is noticeably higher than both its Fair Ratio and industry benchmarks, the stock looks overvalued according to this approach.

Result: OVERVALUEDNYSE:KNSL PE Ratio as at Nov 2025

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1408 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Kinsale Capital Group Narrative

Earlier we mentioned there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is your story or perspective about a company, where you connect the “why” behind the numbers—your reasoning about future revenue, earnings, and margins—to your own fair value estimate. Narratives bridge a company’s unique journey and circumstances to a specific set of financial forecasts, grounding your investment decisions in both data and your viewpoint.

Narratives are easy to use and available right on Simply Wall St's Community page, a feature already used by millions of investors. The tool lets you see how your assumptions and story compare to others and helps you make buying or selling decisions by putting your Fair Value right beside the current market price. Because Narratives refresh instantly as news, earnings, or new information is released, you always have an up-to-date perspective on the story driving the numbers.

For Kinsale Capital Group, for example, some investors focus on bullish expansion into new insurance segments and disciplined cost controls, which leads them to set targets as high as $560. Others see mounting competition and slowdowns in premium growth, supporting targets down at $448. Narratives mean you can craft, compare, and adjust your investment thesis as real conditions change.

Do you think there's more to the story for Kinsale Capital Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!NYSE:KNSL Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include KNSL.

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