Six Flags outlines $780M–$805M 2025 adjusted EBITDA target while advancing portfolio optimization

Earnings Call Insights: Six Flags Entertainment Corporation (FUN) Q3 2025

MANAGEMENT VIEW

* Richard Zimmerman, President and CEO, acknowledged that "our performance in 2025 has fallen short of our expectations," citing volatility and softer demand in September, which led to approximately flat third quarter EBITDA year-over-year. He expressed encouragement about the underlying business strength and emphasized ongoing integration efforts, stating, "we have gained deeper clarity about where the portfolio is strongest, where it needs refinement and how we can adapt to challenges and evolve our approach to unlock the full potential of the company."
* Zimmerman discussed the company's engagement with a group led by JANA Partners, including Travis Kelce, and noted the significant consumer interest generated by their investment, reinforcing Six Flags' brand relevance. Management intends to capitalize on this momentum in the 2026 season.
* CFO Brian Witherow reported, "for the quarter, we delivered modified EBITDA of approximately $580 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $550 million on attendance of 21.1 million guests and revenues of $1.32 billion." Witherow stated, "the $555 million of adjusted EBITDA was essentially in line with the third quarter last year with attendance up 1% and revenues down 2%."
* Witherow highlighted a bifurcation in park performance: "certain parks representing approximately 70% of property level EBITDA have continued to outperform, while parks representing roughly 30% of property level EBITDA have underperformed." He indicated that some underperforming parks are being considered non-core and may be monetized.
* Zimmerman, in closing remarks, reflected on his tenure and the company's future, saying, "we've built a stronger foundation, modernized core capabilities and position Six Flags to operate with greater discipline, better intelligence and a clearer sense of where value will be created."

OUTLOOK

* Witherow revised the full year outlook: "we now expect to deliver full year adjusted EBITDA of $780 million to $805 million." He cited a realistic assessment of business conditions and a focus on creating a stable foundation for 2026.
* Management remains focused on optimizing investment in underperforming parks and rationalizing capital allocation to maximize near-term returns.
* Zimmerman stated, "as we move forward to 2026, this learning is already reshaping our approach around an understanding that pricing changes, promotions and programming must be phased in sequence with greater precision."

FINANCIAL RESULTS

* Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was approximately $550 million on revenues of $1.32 billion and attendance of 21.1 million guests.
* Attendance for July and August increased approximately 2%, but September attendance declined approximately 5%, resulting in a 5% decline in net revenues for September versus the prior year.
* Modified EBITDA for outperforming parks increased double digits, driven by a 5% increase in combined attendance, while underperforming parks saw a 5% attendance decline and margin contraction.
* October preliminary results showed attendance of 5.8 million guests, an 11% decline versus October last year, but a 7% increase compared to October 2023.
* The company maintained its planned level of OpEx reinvestment in parks despite the September revenue shortfall, which negatively impacted third quarter EBITDA by approximately $20 million.

Q&A

* Steven Wieczynski, Stifel: Asked for quantification of outperforming versus underperforming parks and whether any underperformers are EBITDA negative. CFO Witherow responded they would not break out numbers but reiterated that outperformers represent 70% of year-to-date EBITDA, and some underperformers generate low single-digit millions in EBITDA.
* Wieczynski followed up on bridging the $300 million guidance gap from earlier in the year. Zimmerman cited volatility and a focus on building market penetration in underperforming markets, while Witherow attributed the majority of the miss to attendance.
* Ian Zaffino, Oppenheimer: Inquired about criteria for classifying parks as non-core and the CEO search. Zimmerman indicated the process is ongoing and criteria are being refined with the Board; the CEO search is progressing with strong candidate interest.
* Benjamin Chaiken, Mizuho: Asked about Q4 attendance expectations and guidance assumptions. Witherow outlined assumptions ranging from flat to down mid-single digits for November and December, with each 1% shift in attendance equating to $3 million in EBITDA for the period.
* Thomas Yeh, Morgan Stanley: Probed OpEx investment ROI timelines and cost structure. Zimmerman said traction is typically seen over a three-year ramp, and Witherow described ongoing prioritization of investment by park. Yeh also asked about September attendance moderation; Witherow attributed some of the decline to missteps in advertising and pricing as well as weather impacts.
* Arpine Kocharyan, UBS: Asked about product initiative absorption and CapEx. Witherow explained a previously planned $100 million reduction in 2026 capital spend and that adjustments to marketing and product changes will be phased more gradually to avoid market disruption.
* Chris Woronka, Deutsche Bank: Inquired about customer research and marketing spend. Zimmerman and Witherow highlighted ongoing customer research and the importance of value perception, particularly as consumers become more value conscious.
* Elizabeth Dove, Goldman Sachs: Sought details on 2026 building blocks and per capita spending trends. Witherow said it is early for 2026 forecasts but noted season pass sales are up in value and that in-park spending is encouraging, with per capita exit rates expected to be down in the low single-digit range.
* Charles Scholes, Truist Securities: Asked about 2026 CapEx and allocation shifts. Witherow confirmed the $400 million CapEx target remains, with no significant changes in allocation.
* James Hardiman, Citi: Questioned monetization correlation with park performance and the impact of JANA Partners/Travis Kelce involvement. Witherow explained that most low-hanging real estate opportunities have been addressed, and Zimmerman described the partnership as an opportunity to optimize brand relevance and shareholder value.

SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

* Analysts posed probing, sometimes pointed questions regarding guidance reductions, park classifications, and the impact of high-profile investors, reflecting a slightly negative tone and concern over execution and strategy.
* Management maintained a measured and realistic tone, acknowledging setbacks and missteps but emphasizing lessons learned, strategic adjustments, and confidence in future value creation. Phrases such as "we are committed to making decisions that strengthen the long-term health of the company even when those decisions are difficult" signaled a candid, if cautious, confidence.
* Compared to the previous quarter, both analysts and management displayed an increased focus on execution risk and the effectiveness of strategic pivots, with management showing more realism and less promotional optimism.

QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER COMPARISON

* The tone shifted from last quarter’s optimism about rebounding attendance to a more cautious and analytical approach as management faced another guidance revision and continued volatility.
* Guidance for full-year adjusted EBITDA moved from $860 million–$910 million last quarter to $780 million–$805 million, reflecting lower confidence in near-term recovery.
* Management’s messaging evolved from emphasizing macro headwinds and integration progress to focusing more on portfolio optimization, non-core asset rationalization, and disciplined reinvestment.
* Analyst questions shifted from macro factors and long-term targets to probing the details and timing of turnaround efforts and asset sales.

RISKS AND CONCERNS

* Management cited volatility in demand and underperformance in certain parks as key challenges, with continued softness in attendance and revenue trends, particularly in September and October.
* The company faces risk related to the pace and effectiveness of turnaround efforts at underperforming parks, as well as potential delays in realizing returns on strategic OpEx and CapEx investments.
* Analyst concerns centered on execution risk, the timeline for non-core asset monetization, and the ability to maintain margins amid attendance headwinds and cost pressures.
* Management is actively reassessing its marketing approach, rebalancing investments, and prioritizing high-return opportunities, while also planning further integration of digital and ticketing systems for operational efficiency.

FINAL TAKEAWAY

Six Flags management emphasized that, despite a challenging 2025 marked by attendance volatility and a reduced adjusted EBITDA outlook, the company has deepened its understanding of park performance, advanced strategic integration, and is actively optimizing its portfolio. The focus is on disciplined investment, rationalizing non-core assets, and leveraging new brand partnerships to build momentum for 2026 and deliver long-term shareholder value.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/fun/earnings/transcripts]

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