Why MP Materials (MP) Is Down 7.1% After Wider Q3 Losses and Profitability Guidance Shift

MP Materials reported third-quarter 2025 financial results, revealing sales of US$53.55 million and a net loss of US$41.78 million, with rare earth oxide (REO) production slightly lower year-over-year but higher neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) output. Despite wider quarterly losses, company management announced an expectation to return to profitability in the fourth quarter of 2025 and beyond, signaling an important shift in their outlook. We will examine how management's return-to-profitability guidance may affect the investment narrative, especially given recent operating and financial trends.

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MP Materials Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in MP Materials, you need to believe in the company's ability to capture long-term value from US-based rare earth production and vertically integrated magnet manufacturing, supported by major contracts with entities like Apple and the Department of Defense. The recent news of wider-than-expected losses in the third quarter doesn't materially shift the key short-term catalyst: a potential return to profitability in Q4 2025 and the ongoing ramp-up of downstream operations. However, execution risk tied to MP's rapid expansion remains the greatest near-term concern.

Among the recent company announcements, management's Q4 2025 profitability guidance stands out as particularly relevant. With rare earth oxide production slightly down but neodymium-praseodymium output higher, this guidance will likely be a critical reference point for investors assessing whether MP can deliver on the promise of margin improvement and capture more value from downstream integration. Despite the improved outlook, investors should keep in mind that heavy revenue dependence on a few large customers could mean...

Read the full narrative on MP Materials (it's free!)

MP Materials' outlook forecasts $1.0 billion in revenue and $236.3 million in earnings by 2028. This implies a 61.3% annual revenue growth rate and a $337.7 million increase in earnings from the current -$101.4 million.

Uncover how MP Materials' forecasts yield a $80.77 fair value, a 38% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other PerspectivesMP Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

Nineteen members of the Simply Wall St Community place MP Materials' fair value between US$8.87 and US$85 per share, offering dramatically different views. While forecasts of margin expansion fuel some optimism, the strong concentration risk tied to key customers is a crucial factor shaping future performance and deserves closer inspection from all sides.

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Explore 19 other fair value estimates on MP Materials - why the stock might be worth as much as 45% more than the current price!

Build Your Own MP Materials Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

A great starting point for your MP Materials research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Our free MP Materials research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate MP Materials' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include MP.

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