How Investors Are Reacting To WM’s Analyst Upgrade Following Missed Earnings and Institutional Buying

Earlier this week, Baird upgraded Waste Management to Outperform despite the company recently missing third-quarter revenue and earnings targets due to weaker recycled commodity pricing and lower revenue from its healthcare segment. Institutional investor activity has picked up, with over 1,000 investors increasing holdings and analyst sentiment remaining positive despite operational challenges. We'll explore how Baird's upgrade, reflecting confidence in Waste Management's core strengths, could affect its broader investment narrative.

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Waste Management Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Waste Management, you need to believe in the company’s ability to maintain its leadership in waste services while successfully offsetting economic and commodity headwinds, such as volatile recycled commodity pricing. Baird’s recent upgrade, despite a challenging quarter, reinforces confidence in the company’s operational strengths, but does not alter the fact that short-term earnings visibility remains highly sensitive to further volatility in recycling markets, a key catalyst and risk for the business right now.

Among recent developments, Waste Management’s continued focus on targeted acquisitions, including their intent to close more than US$500 million in solid waste deals in 2025, stands out. These acquisitions are directly linked to management’s efforts to drive core business growth, yet their impact will depend on successful integration and execution, factors that remain especially pertinent given present revenue and earnings headwinds.

On the other hand, one risk investors should be aware of is how future regulatory decisions on alternative fuel tax credits could …

Read the full narrative on Waste Management (it's free!)

Waste Management's narrative projects $29.4 billion revenue and $4.0 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 7.0% yearly revenue growth and a $1.3 billion earnings increase from $2.7 billion today.

Uncover how Waste Management's forecasts yield a $246.64 fair value, a 21% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other PerspectivesWM Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

Ten fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community for Waste Management range widely from US$199.95 to US$246.64 per share. With such differing outlooks, it’s important to weigh the volatility in recycled commodity pricing and how it could further impact earnings and sentiment; review the range of views to see how others approach this key factor.

Explore 10 other fair value estimates on Waste Management - why the stock might be worth just $199.95!

Story Continues

Build Your Own Waste Management Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

A great starting point for your Waste Management research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Our free Waste Management research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Waste Management's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include WM.

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