Mondelez (MDLZ): Evaluating Valuation After a Challenging Year for Shares

Mondelez International (MDLZ) shares have had a tough time over the past year, with the stock down 16%. Investors are now sizing up future prospects and wondering what could drive a turnaround from here.

See our latest analysis for Mondelez International.

After a rough patch, Mondelez International’s recent weakness, including a 1-day share price decline of 1.01% and a 7-day drop of 6.86%, has added to a challenging year. The company’s 1-year total shareholder return sits at -16.32%, signaling momentum has cooled both in the short and long term.

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With shares trading nearly 24% below analyst price targets and recent financial growth outpacing the wider market, investors may be wondering whether Mondelez International represents a hidden value waiting to be unlocked, or if caution is justified as growth prospects are already reflected in the stock price.

Most Popular Narrative: 19.4% Undervalued

The most widely followed narrative places Mondelez International’s fair value well above its last close, suggesting current prices don't reflect analyst assumptions about future profit drivers. The story here hinges on both specific growth levers and the potential direction of margins.

Mondelez International is executing a robust pricing strategy in response to high cocoa costs, which is expected to improve revenue as pricing takes effect globally, especially in markets like Europe and emerging markets. The company is implementing a strategic growth agenda that includes reinvesting in brands, expanding distribution, and strengthening market presence, which should positively impact revenue growth and market share.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what’s fueling this bullish backdrop? A handful of surprisingly bold projections, including growth rates, better profit margins, and a sharp decline in share count. The analysts behind this fair value are counting on aggressive expansion and margin recovery. What other financial moves are driving their target? Dive deeper to see which assumptions could send the stock higher, if they come true.

Result: Fair Value of $69.61 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent cocoa price inflation or continued weak consumer demand could limit margin recovery. This could create fresh hurdles for Mondelez's turnaround narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Mondelez International narrative.

Story Continues

Another View: What Does the DCF Model Say?

Taking a step back from analyst price targets, our SWS DCF model tells a very different story. It calculates Mondelez International's fair value at $114.72, far above recent trading prices. This approach suggests a potentially undervalued opportunity, but does the reality align with these projections, or do market risks explain the gap?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.MDLZ Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025

Build Your Own Mondelez International Narrative

If you have your own take on Mondelez International’s story, or want to dig into the numbers yourself, building a personal narrative only takes a few minutes, so why not Do it your way?

A great starting point for your Mondelez International research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include MDLZ.

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