A Look at JFrog’s (FROG) Valuation Following Breakout Q3 Results and Upgraded Outlook

JFrog (FROG) captured market attention after releasing third quarter results that beat expectations on revenue and earnings. Cloud revenue jumped 50% year over year, which reflects broader adoption across enterprise customers.

See our latest analysis for JFrog.

Following these blowout results, JFrog’s share price has soared, jumping nearly 27% in a single day and delivering a 95% year-to-date share price return. That momentum reflects investor excitement about cloud growth, product innovation, and a brighter outlook, even as some long-term holders are still just above breakeven on a five-year total shareholder return basis.

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Yet with share prices approaching new highs and analyst targets, it raises an important question: is JFrog still undervalued after this rally, or has the market already priced in most of its future growth potential?

Most Popular Narrative: 6.3% Overvalued

With JFrog last closing at $60, the most widely followed narrative puts fair value at $56.44, just under current levels. This sets up a lively debate about whether the rally has sprinted beyond reasonable expectations, given where growth and profitability might land in the coming years.

Continued product expansion and innovation targeting advanced security features, ML model lifecycle management, and new pricing packages position JFrog to raise contract values and further penetrate its growing addressable market. This supports both revenue acceleration and long-term earnings growth as digital transformation intensifies across industries.

Read the complete narrative.

Wondering which bold forecasts are fueling this premium valuation? The narrative builds a case on aggressive top-line growth and a dramatic turn-around in profitability. See the concrete assumptions that drive this punchy fair value and decide if they stack up to reality.

Result: Fair Value of $56.44 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, slowing cloud migration or rising competition in security could dampen JFrog’s growth outlook and challenge the assumptions behind these bullish forecasts.

Find out about the key risks to this JFrog narrative.

Build Your Own JFrog Narrative

If you see things differently or want to follow your own hunches, it’s easy to dive in and craft your own take in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your JFrog research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include FROG.

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